Thursday, October 9, 2008

The Lamaque ounces in inventory

Assuming they haven't sold those ounces as yet, the increased gold price is presenting some choices.

Century had 3,200 ounces in inventory at Lamaque at the end of Q2. The $2.156M US hedge buyout settlement is planned for Q4, which would suggest that Century has most likely been waiting for a dramatic gold price increase in Q4 (which most of the gold experts had anticipated all along) prior to selling these ounces.

The spot gold price is now $926 US. The Cdn/US exchange rate is now .86. If Century sells those 3,200 ounces now then it should generate $2.963M US in cash. After paying Gerald Metals their $2.156 US, it should leave $807K US for Century, which converts over to $939K Cdn.

Will Century wait for a $1,000 US gold price? That price would create $1.214M Cdn for Century.

Is a $1,100 US gold price possible in Q4? If so, will Century wait for it before selling these ounces? I guess that decision might be determined on how quickly it spikes (if it does). It might be best to just take $1,000 (or $950) if it arrives in Q4. Anyway, if they wait for $1,100 then Century's share of the sale would be $1,586 Cdn (using the same assumptions).

Again, it is unclear what the current status is with those ounces, chances are probably good that Century is waiting to maximize the price in Q4.

The rise in gold doesn't hurt ounces being sold at San Juan either ($926 US gold price at this particular moment and potentially still $459 US cash cost or better).

Potential of Trafalgar loan to close shortly.

Fortis now with BNP Paribas, an extremely strong European bank, and one which is apparently gold mining friendly. There has been nothing to suggest that the Fortis arrangement has been stopped and/or that the recent technical evaluation was not positive. It is impossible to know what the outcome will be with Century's situation, but I would suggest that fear (and lack of official communication by the company) is a big driver for the share price reaching 1.5 cents. I guess only time will tell.

No long-term debt with San Juan.

Having a supportive secured debt partner (IQ - which has continually demonstrated their support in the efforts to make Lamaque a success) has been pivotal during this global crisis situation. Century does not have to make any payments to IQ in 2008, and Century's debt is due in equal payments over a 15 yr period (about $1M per year).

1 comment:

juha said...

Greatful for your work( Carib+all others also ), thanks
always reading

/ Juha