(my calculations)
US$100 = 1 P&P Reserve 43-101 oz in ground
US$50 = 1 M&I 43-101 oz in ground
US$10 = 1 Inferred 43-101 oz in ground
US$5 = 1 Resource oz in ground (tabulated prior to launch of 43-101 standards)
Exchange rate = 1.1538
1) Lamaque (43-101):
P&P Reserves, 1,134,971 ounces = C$130,952,954
Other M&I, 1,283,891 ounces = C$74,067,672
Inferred, 3,130,779 ounces = C$36,122,928
Total 43-101 Lamaque = C$241,143,554
2) Century has demonstrated good success with its 12 month development / exploration program at Lamaque (highlighted in the March’09 Presentation – still on website). Examples of this include the recent issuance of additional M&I and Inferred ounces and taking the Vulcan program down to the 2000 – 3000 ft level.
Century has listed an objective of adding 200,000 ounces in reserves. Given its success in announcing timely increases to the Lamaque resource base, I belief the chances are good that this will be announced at some point in the next couple of months. As such, I’ve decided to build it into my gross value analysis for Century.
Additional P&P Reserves at Lamaque (and assuming the M&I it originated from will be replenished), 200,000 ounces = C$23,076,000
3) San Juan (43-101):
P&P Reserves, 186,316 ounces = C$21,497,140
Other M&I, 16,475 ounces = C$950,443
Inferred, 175,125 ounces = C$2,020,592
Total 43-101 San Juan = C$24,468,175
4) Northbelt (non-43101)
Ounces calculated prior to 43-101 standards being launched. PK has said that the count is currently 250,000 ounces for Northbelt. I have been able to find 175,000 ounces (averaging grade of 10.3 g/t and 4.0 g/t) via online documents. The other 75,000 ounces is likely located in internal documents that are not published online.
Non-43101, 250,000 ounces = C$1,442,250
5) Aumaque (non-43101)
Ounces calculated prior to 43-101 standards being launched.
Non-43101, 100,000 ounces (average grade between 6.0 g/t and 8.5 g/t) = C$576,900
6) Poderosa shares = C$370,000
7) Taking a conservative approach, no value was assigned (in this analysis) to any of these other solid properties:
*Other parts of the Lamaque Complex
*Excellent exploration properties surrounding Lamaque (outside of the Lamaque Complex)
*A number of mineralized properties surrounding San Juan
*Juneau (Alaskan) properties
*Erika copper property
*Carolin Mine
*Goodchild properties
8) In today’s world, it would cost far beyond C$125,000,000 to put mining (underground – most expensive type) and processing (milling – most expensive type) infrastructures in place at Lamaque, comparable to what is currently in place right now.
9) In today’s world, it would cost at least C$25,000,000 to put mining and processing infrastructures in place at San Juan, comparable to what is currently in place right now.
10) Total Gross Value of CMM = C$441,076,879
2 comments:
So your calculations, what is stopping this "no brainer" of a financing deal to go through???? Baffles the mine(mind). Anyway, I getting the feeling that all is not well with the CMM Management/Union Sec/Asian Investors and that there are major stumbling blocks which are holding up this financing deal. Could it be the fact that the QC gov't has slapped CMM with $ 40k in fines for environmental issues. Definitely we are seeing shareholder fatigue. Volumes are low but consist to the down side. From my point of view as an investor/speculator whatever you want to call me and many others; I would just soon a suitor come along (friendly or unfriendly) and make an attempt to take PK et al. out. The assets are there we just can't by the enigma of PK's presence and what it means to the investment world. I am writing with some frustration as I hung "thru the sell and May and go away" season" and now sit in the doldrums of summer expecting this to have been resolved a month ago. BJ is not returning emails/calls, so who knows what is going on. BTW P5 I really do appreciate your analysis on the situation, but I want to rid myself of my traders and move on. My LT's I will keep until I hit my target, but my ST's I want gone. As soon as the damn FD is announced. Cheers!
Hi Rhump,
Unfortunately, I don't have any answers for you.
As part of the technical DD report, Gorman went into great details to discuss all aspects related to the enivironment at Lamaque. Lamaque received a good grade in that category. The lenders read the DD report and were perfectly fine with it - that was the first stage in the entire process (months ago). Century hasn't mined at Lamaque for a year now - there cannot be any new issues if no mining has occurred. Nothing has changed from the Gorman DD report.
PK invested C$400K new cash into Century (last week) out of her own purse last week. She also took shares in the company for her C$200K debt. As far as I can tell, PK is not the type of person that would put C$600K of her own personal money on the line without feeling comfortable about a situation. It may or may not be different if it was someone else's money, but not in a million years would she do that with her own money (and not have a high comfort level), IMO.
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