Thursday, September 24, 2009

Some thoughts

Etruscan’s Special Meeting of the Shareholders notice was filed and was posted on SEDAR on Sept. 15’09 by Etruscan’s lawyers. It means Etruscan’s financing deal with Endeavour was in the works prior to Century’s announcement on Sept 15’09.

Finskiy’s people currently occupy 2 seats on Etruscan’s Board of Directors. In all likelihood Etruscan’s BoD was aware of the Endeavour negotiations. If the Etruscan’s BoD was aware then one would think that Finskiy’s 2 BoD reps would be aware, thus Finskiy would likely be aware also.

If Finskiy was aware of Endeavour’s high probability of financing Etruscan then it means that he still entered into the Century deal even with this knowledge. As a result, it would mean that he knew that this was a strong possibility. If such is the case then I don’t see how Etruscan going in a different direction is a deal breaker for him and Century.

Quite frankly, I even figured that it was highly possible that Etruscan could seek financing elsewhere by the time our deal closes shortly after Oct. 27th (if they weren’t interested in a business combination). Although, I had hoped that Etruscan’s management would see the benefits on a business combination between Century and Etruscan that would have equated to 300,000 ounces of annual production over the next few years, US$425 – 450 cash op cost per oz, 9 million (plus) 43-101 ounces in the ground, all operations located in safe countries, greater asset diversity (where difficulties with 1 asset cannot fully collapse a company) and excellent exploration properties in some of the most strategic locations in the world. This type of company typically trades for C$1.5 billion to C$2.0 billion in this US$1,000 gold price environment (once Etruscan’s hedges were disposed of). This would have been worth $3.00 to $4.00 per share for both Century and Etruscan shareholders, as a combined company. Some companies even trade higher, such as Red Back Mining, with nearly C$3.0 billion in market cap (but with more expected production).

I think this is the vision Finskiy, Scola and Century’s management has for Century. I think it now pushes out the timelines with Etruscan going in a different direction, but I don’t think it changes the long-term growth strategy. Century still has the core assets to be used as foundation in moving towards this.

If Finskiy had knowledge beforehand of a possible Endeavour financing to Etruscan (which it appears that might have been a strong possibility) then he entered into the Century deal knowing that it could come to fruition.

Of course it’s impossible to know what direction both Finskiy and Scola will go, but if this Etruscan financing doesn’t come as a surprise to me then it shouldn’t have been a surprise to them either.

I have absolutely no idea what they are thinking right now about the Century financing. I suppose anything is possible. It would just be odd if Etruscan going in a different direction turns out to be a deal breaker for the Century deal, given that it was a highly probable outcome when Finskiy and Scola announced the deal with Century. Finskiy and Scola will own 44% of Century with conversion of the warrants. They would easily get back to 50.1% with a future financing or by backing shares on the open market – getting back to 50.1% is not an issue, plus they will still likely have majority representation on the BoD.

Again, I have absolutely no idea what direction Finskiy and Scola will go. Although, I do hope they stay with the plan of using Century as their preferred vehicle for gold investments. Based on the NR, it doesn’t sound like that was an overnight decision. They said they spent the last few months evaluating numerous opportunities before selecting Lamaque and Century as the core upon which they will base their portfolio. Is that core still intact today? The answer is yes.

From the Sept. 15’09 NR:

“With the Private Placement and the Etruscan Transaction, Finskiy, Scola, Gravity and Kirkland have demonstrated a commitment to make Century their preferred vehicle for gold investments, support the successful expansion of the Company's business, and grow Century into a significant gold producer.”

“Maxim Finskiy and Fran Scola, in a joint comment, said, ‘Our objective is to build a sizable gold mining company with initial operations and investments in Africa and the Americas. Over the last few months, we have evaluated numerous opportunities, and we are pleased that we have selected the Century management team and the Lamaque project as the core upon which we will base our portfolio. Our plans are to support Century, both financially and technically, in order to enhance the value of our share position.’"

4 comments:

bigjohn37 said...

Your thoughts and analyses are much appreciated, Production. Isn't it ironic that eons ago Endevour provided financing to CMM also (if my memory serves me right, they even had a seat on the BOD). That's when Century's share price was headed upwards. Endevour is long gone, and so are our early gains. Now we have to put our faith into the investment savy of Mr Finskiy and Mr Scola. They seem to like CMM's management team (inspite of that team's numerous blunders). I guess we have to wait and see how long the new honeymoon will last.

production05 said...

Hi bigjohn,

Peggy and the current senior management team would be wise to invest in one of the Chinese companies that produces the minor called antimony. It is primarily used in flame-retardant formulations. Peggy and company will need to create and wear flame retardant socks if they do not deliver a share price that is dramatically better than what we have seen over the past 3.5 years (what a nightmare), and operating results that are light years better than what we have seen over the past 5 years. The new investors are here to capitalize on the high gold price, and subsequently make serious cash in the public investment market. This gold market represents a once in a lifetime opportunity. These new investors are very successful business people. They will not hesitate to put Peggy's feet, as well as the feet of every single other senior management member, over the fire at the first sign of substandard performance.

There needs to be a culture change. There needs to be an immediate movement away from failures and excuses. We need to begin seeing exceptional performances. That needs to be the new standard for everyone at Century, be it lower levels or at senior management levels. The new investors will ensure that there is accountability.

Let's hope for the best. Long suffering Century shareholders deserve good things to finally happen for us.

Anonymous said...

I saw Wolverton sold a bit today, anyone having any thoughts about it? If this financing doesn't work out, i hope Peggy has a plan "b" or someone will get some cheap shares for a while i think. Also i can't really figure out how many O/S shares we have right now, close to 210 million, right?
/ Juha

production05 said...

Over the past couple of years there has been a Wolverton trader that constantly trades in and out of CMM shares. It could be more of this or it could be something different.