Monday, June 14, 2010

It`s too bad Century can`t get its crap together quicker

That is, if they truly want to do this:

``About Century Mining Corporation``
``Century Mining Corporation is a Canadian junior gold producer and holds strategic land positions in Canada, United States and Peru. The Company's strategy is to grow to an intermediate gold producer through existing mine expansions and acquisitions of other strategic and synergistic gold opportunities.``

The share price for Northern Star Mining has now fallen to $.16. They have some good advanced stage properties in the Val d`Or area and also a 900 tpd mill (they also have some potential for low cost production). As I have always said (even back when their share price was $.36), Northern Star is in big trouble, IMO. I said that because they have some serious debt coming due mid next year and I don`t see a non-takeover scenario for them. They also now have some off-take gold delivery that starts early September and running for 12 months (it`s not even clear if they can meet that committment).

This is an ideal company for Century to take over, then refinance the debt (or pay it off partly through cash flow of the new consolidated company come mid next year).

It`s too bad Century didn`t have their crap together. If Century could have only just kept going with the $.87 share price, and up to a nice takeover price of $1.50.

With Northern Star Mining now at $.16, some other players might begin to come around to pick them up cheaply.

With a TRULY PATHETIC share price of $.46 while gold is US$1,200 (Century`s management is entirely to blame for the move down from $.87, IMO) Century will likey not be in a position to do anything meaningful on the takeover front for quite a while (without short selling Century shareholders with too much extra dilution), IMO.

Although Northern Star`s assets are perfect for us, Century will likely lose out on the opportunity if Northern Star`s situation becomes too desperate (and they have to sell out immediately to a shark). In such a situation, Northern Star`s shareholders lose out big time also, as the company they partner with would likely not have nearly the share price upside (as Century`s depressed share price can offer).

All in my opinion of course.

At this stage, management just need to focus on delivery Lamaque. Everything else is irrelavent until they begin showing significent progress at Lamaque.

5 comments:

Moich said...

Ifs and buts will drive you nuts.We investors and future investors need some consecutive positive nr's.I believe the Bullboards are killing us too. Those guys have no knowledge of mining and are installing fear,while Century just sits back. Come on Peter lets get on the ball and fight this,IMO

chillby said...

Well, it bears remembering, fellow sufferers, that the day is young, and Syracuse wasn't built in a month (sorry about that...). It isn't possible to seize every opportunity at once - how many companies have died with the goods in their hands, for having had no better sense than to gad about trying to hold everything that the wind blew by.
Seems to me that Lamaque wasn't even open not so long ago. I think-and I'm wrong as often as the next guy-that production05 was right- it is first priority to get Lamaque producing. No distractions, no dithering-just drill the holes and pour the metal. It isn't a small undertaking, its being done correctly and approximately on time.
If the players want to drive the price down, be smart about it. Buy more shares!
I've watched Mt. Milligan founder along for close to 25 years. Terrane really has a shot at it now. CMM will be measuring their birth pangs in weeks, not years. You watch and see.

Anonymous said...

Yes, perhaps you've let your emotions get the better of you. Century picked up both the current mines cheaply, they've fixed one and got it going profitably, now they are doing the same to Lamaque, which is a bigger job.
Maybe they need to focus on exploring what they've got, rather than try to expand.
Once commercial production has been achieved the market will re-rate the shares, by then the second part of the credit crunch might be back, then other opportunities will probably present themselves.
The down day is probably due to a few day traders who took a 20% profit we bottomed at .46 and bounced. Nothing much to worry about.

Anonymous said...

prod-5, why not post a detailed explanation of what you think Century is doing wrong? I'd be interested in knowing what's got you so negative. Is it just the share price, alone?

And, btw, what's your average price? I can see you being annoyed if you're in the red right now. But me, I'm buying at this low price. (I'd never touch it at .60, though.)

Anonymous said...

What annoys me most is that the Adrian guy is still around
Lamaque. Thought he was shipped off to Peru. To me he represents the worst of all that went wrong at Sigma when they moved all that rock to find what? Bills (debt that sent our s/p crashing) There were other mismanagement issues of course.