Friday, April 11, 2008

Thoughts on Wega selling

Friday's trades have been posted.

Production, I think Wega is trying to lead a revolt against PK's leadership and management of CMM. While it is true that the Lamaque 43-101 news pushed our share price to 55 cents, Wega didn't start selling until the share price had declined to 34 cents. That might have been their breaking point.

Two years ago today our stock closed at $1.43 and the POG closed at $597.75. Today we are at 20 cents and the POG is $925. What possible excuse could there be for the current CEO to be still in charge?

The last positive news we had was the purchase of San Juan and at that time we were told that SJ would produce 80,000 oz in 2008.

In the interim we have lost several CFO's, Exploration Managers, General Managers at Sigma-Lamaque, a Manager of Resource Geology, a Manager of Investor Relations, two Directors and many others, yet the Head Honcho appears to be untouchable.

No shareholder wants to see an ever decreasing share price when the value of the company's assets suggest that it should be 5 or 10 times higher, but maybe Wega's thinking that "no pain, no gain" is the right course of action.

Imagine if we were making a bid for SUE today and used the formula of paying a 30% premium to the respective closing prices. That means we'd have to offer 3.7 CMM shares for every SUE share. And what does SUE have? A very tenuous claim to a low-grade deposit of 2 million resource ounces in Peru with no infrastructure.

Something's gotta give!

9 comments:

Natik said...

Carib, it borders on the ridiculous!

Remember Plexmar? Their closing share price was .20 today. The same as Century's. What does PLE have going for them? Read the following;

Plexmar Resources closes $326,200 first tranche


Plexmar Resources Inc (C:PLE)
Shares Issued 139,064,134
Last Close 4/10/2008 $0.20
Friday April 11 2008 - News Release

Mr. Guy Bedard reports

PLEXMAR RESOURCES INC. COMPLETES $326,200 PRIVATE OFFERING

Plexmar Resources Inc. has completed today a private placement for a gross amount of $326,200. The offering is a first tranche of a private offering which may reach a maximum of $1-million consisted in the issuance of a total of 2.33 million units at a price of 14 cents per unit. Each unit comprises one Plexmar common share and one-half common share purchase warrant. Each whole common share purchase warrant entitles its holder to subscribe to one additional common share for a period of 24 months at a price of 20 cents per share for the first 12 months and 25 cents per share for the following 12 months.

Plexmar intends to use the proceeds of this private offering for the implementation of its exploration programs and for its working capital.

For the purposes of this private offering, Plexmar has granted to some intermediaries a total cash compensation of $22,834 and a total of 163,100 broker warrants exercisable for a period of 12 months after the closing of the offering entitling the holders thereof to acquire 163,100 Plexmar common shares at a price of 14 cents per share.

Securities issued as part of this offering are subject to a four-month hold period under applicable securities legislation.

© 2008 Canjex Publishing Ltd.

Natik said...

Carib,

Look at PAT's news release today and the reserve calculations for the Island Gold mine. They have a 45 % interest in the mine.

Production5 stated yesterday that he hopes the San Juan 43-101 reports 800,000 ounces, or higher.

PAT's share price is 49 cents for their 45% share of the Island Gold Mine.

CMM's share price for three producing gold mines, including the hard assets, is 20 cents. There are also all the other properties.

Like you said, something's gotta give!

April 11, 2008
Patricia Mining Corp. Announces the Issuance of a $500,000 Convertible Debenture
TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwire - April 11, 2008) -

NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION TO UNITED STATES NEWSWIRE SERVICES OR FOR DISSEMINATION IN THE UNITED STATES.

Patricia Mining Corp. ("Patricia") (TSX VENTURE:PAT) announces the issuance of a $500,000 convertible debenture. The convertible debenture bears interest at a rate of 9% per annum and is due March 31, 2009. At the option of the holder, and after six months the debenture becomes convertible into common shares at a rate of $0.52 per share which is equal to a conversion rate of 1,923 shares per $1,000 principal. During the first six months the Company may redeem the debenture at 102% of the principal plus accrued interest. After six months the Company may prepay any portion of the principal amount without penalty provided conversion has not occurred. This transaction is subject to regulatory approval.

Patricia's main asset is a 45% interest in the operating Island Gold Mine located near Wawa, Ontario. As of December 31, 2007 the mine had Proven and Probable Reserves estimated to be 1,058,881 tonnes of ore at a grade of 8.39 g/t for 285,536 ounces of gold. In addition the mine had Measured and Indicated Resources totalling 192,422 ounces of gold and Inferred Resources estimated at 193,350 ounces of gold.

National Instrument 43-101 The reserve and resource calculation of the Island Gold property as of December 31, 2007 was performed by Ms. Nicole Rioux, Geo., of Genivar, a qualified person under the terms of NI 43-101 and was supervised by Mr. Jules Riopel, M.Sc. P. Geo., MBA, Director Geology and Exploration, an employee of Richmont Mines Inc.

This release was prepared by management of the Company who takes full responsibility for its contents.

Some statements contained in this release are forward-looking and, therefore, involve uncertainties or risks that could cause actual results to differ materially. Such forward-looking statements include comments regarding mining and milling operations, mineral resource statements and exploration program performance. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially include metal price volatility, economic and political events affecting metal supply and demand, fluctuations in mineralization grade, geological, technical, mining or processing problems, exploration programs and future results of exploration programs at the Island Gold Project, future profitability and production.

The securities referred to herein have not been registered under the US Securities Act of 1933 and may not be offered or sold in the United States or to a US person absent registration or an applicable exemption from registration.


The TSX Venture Exchange has not reviewed and does not accept responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this news release.



CONTACT INFORMATION:
Patricia Mining Corp.
Christopher R Chadder C.A.
President & CEO
(416) 214-4900
Fax: (416) 864-0620

or

Patricia Mining Corp.
Mr. Gus Garisto
Investor Relations
(416) 805-3106
Email: info@patriciamining.com
Website: www.patriciamining.com

bigjohn37 said...

Carib, first of all, thanks for starting this Blog. It provides a venue for serious conversation. It also gives us shareholders a chance to let off some steam. Perhaps you should notify Brent about its existence (if you have not done so already). That way PK might get an inkling about what we think about her performance.

You might be right about Wega trying to lead a shareholders' revolt against PK's leadership & management. While I sympathize with Wega's objective, I question the "wisdom" of their method. A depressed share price makes a bad situation worse to manage this company. Unless they plan to force CMM into bankruptcy (& pick up the pices for 10 cents on the dollar). That would hurt all of us little guys, and make us poorer.

Besides, ousting PK may not be easy with the current BD, unless Wega secured the support of Scion.
In fact, I was surprised that Wega did not seek a seat on the Board when they made their invetment.

On thing for sure, the upcoming AGM should be very interesting.
Cheers, bigjohn37

production05 said...

Hi Natik,

I still hope that we could see 800K (+) ounces on the first SJ 43-101 try - I am real hopeful, especially with everything that has gone bad for us (it would be good for us shareholders). PK was very positive on the Jan 14'08 conference call that the SJ 43-101 report would be good for our share price. However, it has been 3.5 months since the report was due out (at Y/E) and 3.0 months since PK's positive comments (mid Jan). The reality is that we have no idea what exactly have caused the various delays during this time period.

As a result, the silence has lead to greater uncertainty, and lowered expectations. I don't know what a reasonable lower number would be. Is 500,000 ounces reasonable? Let's go with that for the purpose of this example, and prove that your point is very valid.

With 500,000 total resource ounces in the ground at SJ, we are probably looking at a mine life of 7 - 10 years (once ounces are eventually moved into P&P reserves), and 35,000 - 40,000 production ounces per year. With a gold price of $600 - 1,000 and cash cost per ounce of $350, we are probably looking at a significant margin contribution per ounce for the 7 - 10 year period. The majority of milling and mining infrastructure is already in place, thus minimal capital expenditures are required to ramp up production to these levels.

Now, if only SJ by itself (with these types of numbers) was a separate company (and it was viewed like other similar companies) how much would the SJ Company share price be? My guess is it would be more than $.20 by itself (especially once ramped up). So, to your point, even using lowered expectations for SJ, the basic fundamentals (for SJ even alone) are so much stronger than those other companies (never mind after you add in Lamaque and everything else).

Production05

bigjohn37 said...

Good morning, Carib.
Your thoughts on Wega selling prompted me to think some more about CMM's mangement and governance. First, it may not be fair to put all the blame on PK's shoulders (although she is the CEO). What about the performance of CMM's senior officers. Supposedly they were at the table when important decisions were made. Plus, they are responsible (or should be) for carrying them out.

Second, what about the performance of the Board? There are several well respected independent directors. Are they just a bunch of patsies at board meetings? Or do they ask some hard questions? Did they see any warning signs on CMM's horizon this past year? Or did they just buy PK's rosy promises at face value? In one way, they supposed to represent us, the shareholders.

I wonder if the board chair and the president's positions should have been separate from the beginning. Perhaps a more balanced judgement might have resulted about critical issues.
Cheers, bigjohn37

roxy14 said...

Next couple of weeks should be very interesting with the SJ 43-101,restated Lamaque 43-101, financials and hopeful closing of the pp all coming up. As well as possible updates on the renegotiating of payments in Peru. Whats next.....
takeover, merger or hopefully just increased
production, targets being
met and increasing sp. Big
question...Do we back up the truck, hold or dump.
I'm still holding for the turn around.
GLTA

Natik said...

Good comments Production, BigJohn, and Roxy.

BigJohn, CMM's board and officers definitely have to share some blame. I am aware that on several occasions the BOD has held strategy sessions to discuss CMM's future direction, including the Sulliden takeover bid. They are not blind to what is occurring. Some Directors might actually be working with PK to find viable solutions.

Roxy, another scenario could entail spinning out the Peru mines and properties into a separate company and give current CMM shareholders shares in that comapany. Peru doesn't contribute any value to our share price, but definitely creates a drag on it. If Century is in the process of securing longterm debt to develop Lamaque then lenders are probably only interested in the Quebec assets. Your question about a merger is very relevant in view of the recent merger of three junior gold companies. The Juniors are hugely undervalued - a merger could make sense if a willing partner or two are willing to dance.

Production, the November 2007 (six months ago) corporate update included a page entitled "Total Gold Resources.' The reference to SJ, based on 'current CMM estimate' was 500,000 ounces in M&I, and 500,000 ounces in Inferred. You would expect the published results to at least achieve your 800,000 ounces.

Thank you for your interesting thoughts.

Natik

Natik said...

I forgot to mention that the February 08 Corporate update (two months ago) reported that SJ had 350,000 ounces in M&I and 500,000 ounces in Inferred. These figures were based on current company estimates. Presumably these figures are closer to the mark than November 07.

roxy14 said...

looks like Wega won't be happy till were trading at
0. Talk about overhang.