I've updated the spreadsheet "Comparison of Gold Cos." with today's closing prices and CMM's updated 43-101 reserves and resources. I have not included anything for Rosario.
In that spreadsheet I have arbitrarily defined a Gold Oz. as reserves + 60% of measured and indicated resources + 40% of inferred resources. This conservatively assumes that eventually 60% of M&I resources and 40% of inferred resources will be converted into reserves.
Of the 20 companies profiled:
Avg market cap/gold oz = $177.10
CMM's market cap/gold oz = $10.08
Avg market cap/reserve oz = $326.01
CMM's market cap/reserve oz = $22.20
Avg market cap/M&I resource oz = $175.00
CMM's market cap/M&I resource oz = $14.95
CMM's share price could be 10 times what it is and it would still be valued at less than the average of 19 of its peers.
4 comments:
Good comparison Carib.
Problem is we'll probably
be taken over or merged
before any re-valuation
can happen. Hope not, but
this Wega selling at large
losses must have some reason behind it. Same with the SUE sp increase.
This news release is a huge disappointment, probably explains why it was not released in January as originally planned.
Most of the bad news is out already. Wega has been pre-dumping ahead - they knew. let me count the negative things in the past 4-5 months.
1. San Juan - 180K oz vs 500K oz
2. $23M write down
3. cash crunch - wonder how much we raised in the last PP
4. CTO - that took the bottom out of the floor.
5. overhanging forward sale of 30K oz at $740 - 2 qtrs left of production perhaps?
And likely a couple more potential ones like failed negotiations on Shahuido and Rosario.
What does this mean? The latest news was a disappointment so it was not the savior that I was hoping for.
Everything now lies in the hands of Wega. If they decide to keep selling, which I believe they still have over 20M shares, they can continue to hold this price under the PP value, putting at risk the PP and forcing CMM to go lower on future PP's.
Something is going on and only time will tell. Like Roxy said, Sue is up 100% in the past month, and we are down huge. someone is saying that Shahuindo is SUE's and we are going to lose/lost it.
All I can say is someone knows. Going forward at least short term, we are at the mercy of Wega. if they chose to turn around and support the PP, force mgmt change, we could be in for a nice recovery. otherwise it's going to be painful sitting in the teens for a while....until the market absorbs all 20M of Wega shares plus 20+M of the PP's plus whatever Scion will be selling when the MCTO is lifted.
Sucks. common Wega, show your hand, what the heck are you up to?
Carib,,,Yes good comparison! CMM MUST now find a suitor for Wega's shares. This is of course, if Wega is wants to unload the entire investment. My thoughts, they are NOT interested. Their interest is in taking over CMM. I know they want Shahuindo. SUE management better watch out as they are next. It appears as PK is being out maneouvered. She only saw the dollars when dealing with Wega. Now she is seeing the beast behind the beauty. Live by the sword, die by the sword. GLTA.
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