Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Today's Trade Summary


The noteworthy aspect of today's trading was the dumping of 350,000 shares by HSBC in 35 minutes at an average of $0.335 dropping the price to $0.325.  HSBC immediately purchased 225,000 shares of TAM at an average of $0.442.  Over the previous 30 days HSBC had purchased 671,000 shares of CMM at an average of 39 cents. 

The reason I mention this is because it is one reason for the current price weakness.  New investors bought in on a combination of technical indicators and compelling valuation comparison to CMM's peers as Production has shown on a couple of occassions. When the stock price hasn't reacted the way they expected, they bail to seek better instant returns elsewhere.

Another reason is the constant steady selling by Anonymous that I believe is from the 13-cent PP.

I believe the biggest reason that the stock price continues to lag in spite of fundamentals that are far superior to other companies is the credibility factor.  PK has lost a lot of credibility with previous forecasts and mismanagement.  Other companies, like the Luna Gold example that Production cited, can forecast production and the market will expect them to make those forecasts just as investors once expected Century to make their forecasts.  Now with Century, it's a case of "Fool me once - shame on you; fool me twice - shame on me".  We will be rewarded with tangible production results and until that happens, I believe we'll continue to be grossly undervalued. 

A change in CEO would be a game-changer, but Scola and company appear to have sipped the PK Kool-aid.  Perhaps a new highly respected Chairman may help, but as long as PK is the company spokesman, she'll be like an anchor.  The Chairman and Scola might have some success selling the company if they leave PK at home.  Otherwise it is going to take patience and production results for us to see a share price that is anywhere near fair value.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Is there some way to estimate how much Anonymous has left? Hope this guy is finished selling

Anonymous said...

anon can either be a market maker or a out of country trader. This is impossible to estimate because they could buy as 002(RBC) then sell as 001 if they wanted to.