Now on website. No major changes. A few quick notes:
1) (pg. 17 ) They confirmed that they have started to receive the new u/g equipment.
2) (pg. 17) Tender out for the 45,000 meter drill program.
3) (pg. 17) They mined 200 tpd u/g in March. Now, it doesn`t say if that is an average or if it is the max. If it`s the average for the month then the current tpd mining level might be slightly higher, at they would have been ramping up throughout the month. Having said that, I noticed that they kept the April targeted tpd at 200 - 300. If it`s not a conservative range then it likely means they expect to mine at current levels for the next month. Their target is 500 - 800 in May. I would like to see them ramp up much higher in April than the current 200 tpd level, but they likely need to wait for the additional ore sources to be prepared for mining first. I guess the good part is that all of the ore mined in March, and the ore to be mined in April (until they begin processing), is being stockpiled - eventually we will see the tpd mining numbers ramped up (the 500-800 in May) complimented further by the stockpiled ore (to push production in the first month or two).
4) (pg. 18) They have left this comment in place: ``average daily tonnage is expected to average 1200-1400 tpd for 2010``
5) (pg. 18) This comment is new to the presentation: ``in 2011 production is anticipated to peak around 2,000tpd``
http://www.centurymining.com/i/pdf/Presentation_April_2010_FINAL.pdf
4 comments:
I took another quick glance at the presentation. I have 2 futher notes:
1) The tpd target for March was ``Nil``. I guess it means they beat the tpd target by 200 (even though we already knew they were mining in March). I guess what we have to really do is take a wider view to fully assess the achievement. I think mining was suppose to start in April. they had build in a 3 month window to get everything in place prior to mining, such as (off the top of my head):
*get power turned on
*rehire staff
*address any government requirements
*gain comfortable access to the underground and prepare the various areas for mining
*prep equipment
*order mining supplies and key start up equipment
I guess all of those functions (and others) went smoothly, thus enabling them to eliminate the contingencies resulting in March mining start up instead of April.
By the way, they did do a tiny change to the April tpd target (from 150-300 to 200-300). Let`s hope they can continue to excel with the start up and delivery above the 200-300 tpd for April.
2) This is new to April:
``Bedard Dyke Portal Engineering and Portal Prep.``
It looks like they are preparing the Bedard Dyke Portal - perhaps ahead of schedule since it is new to the presentation. Maybe it includes the incline also. It`s not clear if they need the decline right away to access the first bunch of ore. The Bedard Dyke ore outcrops in the Sigma pit. There is ore in the pit wall. That is the area they are likely to go after first. It`s not clear how much mine development is required to reach the Bedard Dyke ore in the Sigma wall. They will be mining the 15,000 tonne bulk sample with the first Bedard Dyke permit. My guess is that they can get a lot of that from the pit wall (if not all of it). If such is the case then maybe they can minimize the underground development for the bulk sample which may also help them to start mining it quicker also.
Full mining of the Bedard Dyke and the North Wall Dyke is on a different permit (which I believe the company is working on).
Fyi, the North Wall is scheduled for development in Q4 this year and production schedule for the start of next year. There are currently about 250,000 P&P Reserve North Wall ounces and about another 410,000 Inferred North Wall ounces. Mining will be done via the long hole stooping method (similar to a number of areas of the Bedard Dyke). I believe that is a very efficiency mining method for this type of structure (and very mechanized too). They will use a decline for transportation - from the pit area. It`s a new decline, which will be built as part of the North Wall development in Q4 this year.
P5, correct me if I'm wrong, but have they missed the target to "Upgrade Crusher facilities" by March. Pg 17 of the presentation. No tick mark beside it. If they have missed it, what is the impact it will have on the schedule?
It would have been nice if they had a solid tick mark under ``Upgrade crusher facilities`` for March, instead of a ``Commenced and Ongoing`` tick. It`s not an issue though. Finished upgrade of the crusher at the end of March would have been a nice positive surprise for shareholders, but wasn`t really expected. With regards to my personal expectations, the real target period for the crusher to be ready is the April 1st to mid April timeframe. They said this in the February 2nd update NR:
``the Company has started the upgrade work on the crushing circuit in the mill facility to adjust the capacity to approximately 3,000 tpd, and expects to complete this project in the next 8-10 weeks.``
That is how I established the timeframe for the milling operation to be fully up and running in the first half of April. To be honest, I don`t know how long it will take from mill start up to first gold pour, but I figured maybe about 2 weeks if all goes smoothly. We have a milling operation, but a heap leach operation is very lengthy and requires a lot of natural wait time to go through the slow leaching process. I really don`t remember of the top of my head, but with a heap leach operation one may have to wait for a month or a lot more time for the first gold pour. However, with mill processing it is considerably quicker to recover the gold. Specifically with Lamaque, I believe it`s a 2 stage recovery process. I think the first stage recovers about 50% to 60% of the gold and then they use the gravity circuit to bring the overall gold recover to 94% - 96% (maybe it`s the gravity circuit first and then the cyanide application afterwards, I don`t remember – it is a 2 stage recovery process though). Again, I don`t recall well (off the top of my head), but I believe some of the individual recovery processes are as quick as 24 or 48 hours each.
Getting back to my gold pour timeframe, I figured that if they were successful in bringing the milling operation online by mid April then we had a decent chance to realize first gold pour by the end of April.
I think the goal is still a possibility and maybe even still a probability.
I have an additional thought that we should consider with regards to our milling operation. Yes, there is a major change to the crusher component, but overall, it is not a new and unproven milling operation. It`s not a brand new facility that is going into production for the first time. Mill operations can be very flaky. For example, an operation could experience ongoing (nagging) vibration problems that are hard to pinpoint without taking everything apart and perform countless trial and error efforts with replacement parts. Another example, sometimes (with a new operation) the foundations are not built property or the foundations are too high or too low and does not efficiently support the rest of the mill operation. Although Lamaque`s operation can still be flaky also, there are substantially less chances of issues, at least relative to a new milling operation. We are mainly only removing the jaw crusher (designed for low grade rocks) and replacing it with a higher grade designed jaw crusher and cone crusher. The Sag mill had already been removed and sold in early 2008 and the mill experienced no issues with that transition.
There can still be problems, only time will tell, but the successful operating history of the mill bodes well for us. Per the March 1st update NR, mill shakedown has been progressing very well. The final tests will come with the installation and the connections of the new crushers. We will never know for sure how successful the transition has gone until we reach that stage.
I believe this company is setting up very realistic expectation with designs to always give themselves a good chance to beat those expectations.
For example, in one NR they talk about max rate of crusher in 2011 to be 2000 tpd yet, they are adjusting the crusher to 3000 tpd. My hunch is they will do better than 2000 tpd in 2011.
The other one is their clock to production set for May 31st, I believe we will beat that by at least a week.
This company is trying hard to re-establish their credibility and meeting or exceeding expectations every chance they get is an important part of this.
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