Thursday, May 13, 2010

Frustrating, embarrassing, more kicks in the groin area for long suffering shareholders, but at least the core business is moving along

We need to shed the label of being a mickey mouse operation (we were on our way, but this is a big setback, confidence and perception wise).

As frustrating and embarrassing as this CTO situation is, with yet another kick in the groin for LONG LONG LONG suffering Century shareholders, at least our bread and butter parts on the business should still be trucking along alright.

I am not as much disappointed with the company/auditors needing a bit of extra time with the YE audit process (due to the complexity aspects) as I am with the company allowing the situation to reach BCSC initiated full CTO stage.

Although, a sharp finance team would never ever (under no circumtances, IMO) have allowed this to happen. I know from experience. I have been involved in YE audit processes (on the company side), where major complex reorganizations (and accounting treatments) were encountered (far larger than what Century went through here). The deadlines were set in stone and there were no allowable excuses for missing them. As such, the key is staying ahead of the game and leaving yourself significant room for last minute surprises (even if it means the accounting staff has to burn the midnight oil for several months straight, including weekends). It comes down to taking pride in your job. Also, there needs to be open conversations with the auditors throughout the year (if possible). For example, Century`s CFO should have been running potential accounting treatments by the auditors as early as Q4 last year (even prior to the financing close). A successful audit process is about a good partnership between the company and the auditor, and to ensure no major surprises - COMMUNICATION/ADVANCE AGREEMENT ON ACCOUNTING TREATMENTS IS VITAL. The CFO should put pressure on the audit firm to ensure the auditors step up, and also work overtime if necessary, if they are not carrying their side of the deal. The CFO`s job is to manage the process.

Honestly, having lived through major (complex) YE processes (where there is no tomorrow if you don`t meet your deadlines), I am just shocked to see how frequently Century misses on its Y/E deadlines (and even how many last minute submissions with quarterly statements, or so it seems). Again, I don`t know if it`s a lack of pride, lack of accountability, lack of burning the midnight oil, lack of advance communications/partnership with the auditors, lack of planning, lack of pressure from executives..... It`s impossible for us to know. Though, IMO, there is a critical flaw somewhere. In my view, the problems need to be identified and corrected if the company is serious about growing or even confidence from the market (especially from instituations).

Anyway, (as disappointed as I am about missing the filing deadline - I can give them a break as the executives were focused on delivering operationally, which is much more vital) I am more disappointed that they allowed the situation to end up turning into a BCSC initiated (full) CTO. It`s not clear if they missed the boat in not applying for a management CTO (far less damaging) or if they somehow maxed out on that option (from previous years).

Anyway, here is the positive: Gold price is strong and we are pouring gold - that is what ultimately matters the most. Regardless of everything else, we must deliver operationally at Lamaque otherwise we will have serious issues to overcome.


*230 ounces from Lamaque for the wk of April 30th = about $270K in gross revenue (assuming around $1,175 gold price)

*the rumour seems to be 700 ounces per wk (this is probably reasonable for early low grade processing, 900 tpd @ 95% recovery will likely eventually get us about 900+ ounces per week once we eventually step it up to around 4.76 g/t) = about $840K in gross revenue for week ending May 7th at Lamaque (assuming $1,200 gold price)

*let`s go with another 700 ounces for wk ending tomorrow, May 14th = about $870K in gross revenue at Lamaque (assuming $1,240 gold price)

That would equate to almost $2M in gross revenue at Lamaque since we starting pouring gold. That goes a long way in covering a chunk of our daily operating costs (even though the costs will be capitalized until commercial production).

Also, at the current gold price, we are likely looking at generating about $900K per month of operating profits out of San Juan (not gross revenue, but Ops contribution). This is even after deducting the 200 ounces per month going towards the prepaid gold program and maybe, say, profits from another 100 ounces to cover the operating costs to produce the 200 prepaid ounces.

Then, we still don`t know what the status is with the 2,015 ounces previously sitting in the Lamaque in-process inventory (to be fully processed after restart of the mill operation). That will give us about $2.5M at current gold prices.

7 comments:

Peter said...

Hi Guys,

I just wanted to say, things have really gotten out of hand here, and I'm not talking about CMM Management or their accounting dept. I'm talking about CMM shareholders, or those who post on the SH Boards, claiming to own shares. This current situation is a little bump on the road. It's not a big deal. I knew the stock would be halted once they were late. This is normal, and those are the rules. The Venture figures that without financials, private individuals don’t have accurate information on the company, and can’t make informed purchases, so they halt trading. This will take a few days, maybe even weeks, but it doesn’t change the fundamental value of the business. Because were late filing, the gold doesn’t evaporate, or drill results change. I have a substantial investment in CMM, and of course I can’t trade it, and it’s an inconvenience, but those are the rules, and we all play by them. It happened to a few stocks I owned, and in one recent case, the stock took off as soon as trading was reinstated. Calling management incompetent without knowing the facts is a useless endeavor, and I also think unfair. To say, “This is unacceptable” is rubbish. You have no choice but to accept it. Just my opinion, but I really think it’s nothing to get up about!

And bad mouthing Peter isn’t fair either. The truth is, they will be finished when they are finished, and asking a guy when he thinks they will be finished, and then bashing him about it after the fact, is classic “GOT YA” journalism. They were setting him up to fail. They wanted a definite answer, when there wasn’t one.

I am a long (but I cannot say suffering, considering it closed at 76 cents) shareholder.

This will pass, and instantly become ancient history as we move forward. And, in spite of this cease trade order, we are moving forward. Work is still being down. Gold is still be mined and poured.

Luck to the other longs here

Rgds Pete

bigjohn37 said...

Peter,
I respect your opinion, but I strongly disagree with you. There is no excuse whatsoever to miss a deadline wghich was known a year in advance. That is why I fully agree Production05 that this latest failure of CMM's Management is "frustrating, embarassing etc".
How can CMM earn and keep the Market's trust with this kind of performance. Maybe its time to change the person(s) responsible!?
JMO.
bigJohn

yikes1 said...

I plan on holding on to my shares, but what frustrates me is lately any news I'm looking forward to is overshadowed by bad news. The gold pour was burried with the late financials, and now the financials- that I'm hoping are more positive than negative, are going to be overshadowed by this CTO....One step forward, two steps back.

Anonymous said...

A couple of weeks ago I attempted to sell a profitable set of shares and buy more CMM. Something stopped me, reminding me not to put any more eggs into that basket. I'm a longtime shareholder of CMM and have been through whatever there was to go through - forward moves/backward moves etc.

I ended up happy that I didn't sell the shares which earned more money this week.

While I'm disappointed in the CTO - allowed by our management, I know that the stock will continue to do well as the company grows.

They just have to find a way out of what seems like a curse for things to keep going wrong - where they don't have to.

chillby said...

Here's what I know:
CMM, despite having a whole lot on their plates, dropped the ball on filing their YE's. That's a sin and I'm sure the responsible party(ies) are doing penance. Let's face it: Ms. Kent is hardly likely to let such a thing slide.
I know for a fact that Peter Ball is on the job, on time and making it happen. I am quite sure that there is no CMM employee in Blaine who hasn't been burning midnight oil for the past three months. The crew in Lamaque are so far ahead of schedule that the government is considering changing the calendar. (don't worry-I'm not quitting my day job...) The crew in Peru can't wait for the new gear, and did a knockout job last quarter.
My read on the Lamaque geology is that the old companies scratched the surface, and that's about it.
Lets face it - times are uncertain and tough. Anything could blow up in your face - bad software, bad software salesmen, oil rigs, clusterwhats from all over the place. I haven't noticed that difficult timing is the sole province of CMM. Crazy things generally all happen at once, and nobody is immune from it. Not banks, accounting houses, oil companies, tech companies, governments, shippers, even timber companies. Hey-even miners screw up sometimes. As a shareholder, I look for value in an imperfect world. In thirty years of investing, I've had some surprises from unexpected quarters. Some of them have been really good. And unless we have a solar storm that dissolves all the gold from the earth, I expect that CMM will offer more good surprises than bad ones.
I feel for Big John, and he's absolutely right. There are no excuses. Not for being late, or for bashing an investor relations guy whose job it isn't to file financial statements. We haven't been given a single excuse from the company. We have been given the reasons why. We all hope, demand, pray that this will never happen again and all that. I admit - I'm pissed because I can't add to my position while the CTO is in effect.
If you're an investor looking for a perfect world, call me when you find it. CMM is run by human beings. We are all subject to error, and sometimes it takes repeating the error to figure out what the problem truly is. I have zero doubt that Ms. Kent will attend the issue judiciously.

Anonymous said...

I think Ms Kent et. al. knew the CMM share price would tank during a managment CTO, so they purposely let a full CTO take effect so us poor shareholders couldn't scoop up shares at bargain prices.

Whaaa whaa!

As long as the GOLD ($1240 per oz) is still there..its good.

rick said...

so funny mickey mouse mine, and thats not all they call bs mine or dolloramine why ...... i told you again they are cheap on the bonus raise the bonus bonus bonus bonus all miners working for bonus