Wednesday, September 1, 2010

Comment

It is a frustrating thing to watch our s/p dither while so many miners are shooting up. Every day, I question why I keep holding CMM stock. (I do this with all my investments.) Part of why I keep my shares is that my investment window is 2-5 years. If you want to really grow a mining portfolio, you can't do it day-trading. The 3-month plan won't work. You are going to miss the pulse, when it comes, if you aren't on the table. Developing a profitable mine takes time, money and bloody hard work. Even if management is right all the time-which they never are (being human)- things crop up that slow things down. Our equipment is late. Anybody care to guess what the backlog is at Sandvik? Or any other mining equipment-maker right now?
There are so many mines in development right now that it blows the mind. Companies are out there digging it up at less than 1g/ton ore. Or planning to. And they are all buying and ordering mining equipment. I am glad the explorers get a bit of holiday here, with gold so high, but when gold corrects 5 years out or so, all those guys with less than .25oz/ton in the ground are going to go bust, shut down and pull out the mothballs and pumps. By that time, Century will be in full swing or bought out. The thing that makes this company attractive is the gold in the ground, the ore concentration, and the fact that they are in "...stable, mining-friendly jurisdictions..." as they are so fond of saying. I like this company because even if gold goes back to 800.00/oz, they will still turn a profit. I like this company because, even if I hold for the next 16 years, I know they have a good pipeline of properties. I know that because P05 does his homework, and isn't afraid to suggest scenarios. I know it because every time I call Peter, I get straight answers. I know it because I do a daily routine of due diligence.
Worried about debt? I'd like for CMM to be debt free, but they wouldn't trade at this level if they were. There is ALWAYS a good reason that the market holds a s/p down. But here's the nut-why I don't sell my core here: in manufacturing, the only mutable cost is labor. That includes management. We have issues as a company. All of them are well-known. And every person in Blaine, San Juan and Val D'Or that I can get a sense of is doing their damnedest to get this company up and running.
I reside in P05's camp strongly because I firmly believe that we small fish ought to be heard. Okay - we own less than 50%, maybe, but what happens to any public company if the public doesn't like them? 100% institutional ownership doesn't exist (okay-we'd like 20%, I get it!).
The money on this company is going to come next year. And every year after that, it is going to grow. I put all the information about our BOD out here because I believe that we have some excellent people who know mining on our board. Like any other small company, we have some debt financing to deal with. On top of that, we have to show: timely quarterlies, improving mine profiles, get a good CEO, etc.Just remember the basics - we have a lot of high-grade ore, and a team building that will PROBABLY get it out of the ground at a great profit. If you aren't comfortable with trusting your instinct, go buy the majors. Your investment won't grow much, but it will be stable. And after 16 years, you will likely have made less money than if you had bought a troubled company that was improving its profile.
For the record, Mr.Stormpay, please don't ever hesitate to publish your thoughts. I also am in your camp (for what its worth), because we ought to all be skeptics. If the hard questions aren't asked and discussed, then what the devil is the use of a blog anyway? Just let's all stay on topic, and avoid personal attacks - they disqualify an argument. We MUST be better than our politicians!

4 comments:

Mrstormpay said...

I may post a video response via utube in the coming days.

Wingfong said...

Hi Chillby

the 10th line 0.25oz/ton, u mean 0.25g/ton right? (0.25oz=7.77gm if my math is right)

Wingfong said...

Chillby

talking about property pipeline, I only have a brief idea about Lamaque's, San Juan in general, the NWT and some properties in Alaska. Is there a detail summary somewhere I can refer to?

chillby said...

Wingfong,

No, what I'm talking about is the long-term prospect of having a profitable mine. Back when gold was cheap - say 180.00/oz, nobody looked at 3g/ton as a profitable ore body - unless it was placer or dumptruck mining. I look for companies with reserves of 1/4 Ounce per ton of ore in their P&Ps as a guideline for examining a company further. Since it can take 12-16 years to go from discovery to a working mine, one must pay attention to long term averages in gold price. My guess is that 5-8 years from now, gold production will catch up to demand, as more and more low-grade mines commence production. At that time, the price of gold will likely correct dramatically. Only profitable mines will stay in business. Right now, I look at the bar as being profitable if gold is at 800.00oz. Our costs are half that. When we get past this period, and into commercial production, we'll start to see some good results.
People have a perfect right to disagree with P05's various analyses, but his numbers regarding cash flow per ounces mined are worth looking at - and if we are turning out 100k ounces per year, 40 million in debt is going to vanish like smoke. If it doesn't happen this year, well we'll all still be here on Jan. 1 (hopefully).