It is my view that the main issue holding back Century`s share price is a confidence issue. Due to the company`s track record, coupled with recent negative history of open pit mining on the property (even though Century will be mining strictly underground, and there is an extremely successful 70 year underground mining history on the property - it appears as if the structure of the mineralization on the property requires a high level of selectiveness, which underground mining can far better accommodate relative to open pit mining), it is my view that the market (institutions, analysts, new retail investors, additional newsletter writers, etc.) is demanding to see extensive proof that Century has turned the corner operationally.
As such, I believe that a successful launch of the Bedard Dyke into the production stream, followed by North Wall not too far behind, could initiate the first stage of the share price revaluation process.
It is impossible to know which pace the revaluation will follow. It could follow a slow gradual pace, demanding more proof from the company after each baby step, or the pace may be violent and explosive like recent share price revaluations experienced by these companies:
1) Yukon-Nevada Gold
http://tmx.quotemedia.com/charting.php?qm_page=51535&qm_symbol=YNG
2) Intrepid Mines
http://tmx.quotemedia.com/charting.php?qm_page=31782&qm_symbol=IAU
3) Sulliden Gold
http://tmx.quotemedia.com/charting.php?qm_page=74273&qm_symbol=SUE
4) La Mancha Resources
http://tmx.quotemedia.com/charting.php?qm_page=6907&qm_symbol=LMA
5) High River Gold
http://tmx.quotemedia.com/charting.php?qm_page=86917&qm_symbol=HRG
6) Olympus Pacific Minerals
http://tmx.quotemedia.com/charting.php?qm_page=93129&qm_symbol=OYM
7) Orvana Minerals
http://tmx.quotemedia.com/charting.php?qm_page=98299&qm_symbol=ORV
8) Victoria Gold
http://tmx.quotemedia.com/charting.php?qm_page=82681&qm_symbol=VIT
9) American Bonanza Gold
http://tmx.quotemedia.com/charting.php?qm_page=91483&qm_symbol=BZA
10) Timmins Gold
http://tmx.quotemedia.com/charting.php?qm_page=80724&qm_symbol=TMM
4 comments:
Hi Production05,
I agree with your assessment that it's the lack of confidence that holds the share price way below fair valuation. I think that the catalyst for the explosive revaluation will start with the appointment of the new CEO,and will be driven by the consistency in achieving production targets and good cashflow during the coming months. And I don't think we have to wait too long for the "explosion" to start.
Good Analysis....I have several spreadsheets with some in-depth detail that I may post this week.
Mrstormpay,
I believe the SP performance will be heavily and directly influenced by the followings:-
1) Lamaque achieving commercial production status by virtue of delivering 1200tpd for the stipulated days-30 days, 60 days or 90 days?
2) Co vaults over the 100,000oz Au Production Rate hurdle (including San Juan's production) by delivering 1600tpd from Lamaque
3) A super grade CEO come on board
When these come to pass, I anticipate the SP run up will be fast and furious
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