Saturday, July 10, 2010

Near-term Lamaque Gross Revenue scenarios

JUNE ACTUAL:

*gross production ounces = 1,870

*net production ounces (after the 667 ounce DB prepaid delivery) = 1,203

*approximate Lamaque Gross Revenue in June = C$1,500,000
(@ US$1,200 price, 1.04 exch rate)


GO FORWARD (NEAR-TERM) POSSIBILITIES:
(monthly)

Scenario 1 (4.37 g/t grade):

*1A) 800 tpd = 3,237 gross ounces or 2,570 net ounces = C$3,200,000 Gross Revenue available entirely to Century, based on net ounces

*1B) 900 tpd = 3,642 gross ounces or 2,975 net ounces = C$3,700,000 Gross Revenue ....

*1C) 1,000 tpd = 4,046 gross ounces or 3,379 net ounces = C$4,200,000 Gross Revenue ....

*1D) 1,100 tpd = 4,451 gross ounces or 3,784 net ounces = C$4,700,000 Gross Revenue ....

(@ US$1,200 price, 96% recovery, 1.04 exch rate instead of 1.06 due to the bounce back in C$, 667 monthly DB ounces)


Scenario 2 (4.76 g/t grade):

*2A) 800 tpd = 3,526 gross ounces or 2,859 net ounces = C$3,570,000 Gross Revenue available entirely to Century, based on net ounces

*2B) 900 tpd = 3,967 gross ounces or 3,300 net ounces = C$4,100,000 Gross Revenue ....

*2C) 1,000 tpd = 4,407 gross ounces or 3,740 net ounces = C$4,670,000 Gross Revenue ....

*2D) 1,100 tpd = 4,848 gross ounces or 4,181 net ounces = C$5,200,000 Gross Revenue ....

(@ US$1,200 price, 96% recovery, 1.04 exch rate instead of 1.06 due to the bounce back in C$, 667 monthly DB ounces)


This is only for Lamaque. The 1,700 monthly San Juan produced ounces have been excluded.

14 comments:

bigjohn37 said...

Very impressive revenue figures, Production05. Sooner or later they have to be reflected in the share price. Any word yet about the analysts' tour? Perhaps we'll know by next week.
Regrads, bigjohn37
PS: Thanks for all your fine postings.

Anonymous said...

The tour went great, there were about 14 people that showed. They were very impressed with what they seen.

Anonymous said...

One thing that's puzzling me.
Production through June is 3831 oz, with 6 months remaining in the year.

Even in your rosiest projection of 4848 oz/month for the rest of the year, they'll produce another 29,088 oz for a total of 32,919.

Guidance in the corporate presentation is for 40,000 oz this year. Are they setting themselves up to disappoint or am i missing something?

Anonymous said...

As we go, those monthly figures should go up each month. As more equipment comes in they will be able to process more and more ore in the facility.

chillby said...

Two things:
From talking with Peter this week, we can reasonably expect to see some significant amounts of high-grade ore coming from BD's progress. Perhaps the resulting head grade will offset the loss of TPD during ramp-up.
Analysts' reports will begin coming this next week as well, and I think there's an institutional conference starting Monday (tomorrow), in which we ought to have some exposure.
I feel very encouraged for all of us - especially you old-timers who have been keeping the faith for so long. The more I uncover about this story, the more I wonder why Scorcese hasn't made a movie about us yet (maybe he doesn't like happy endings...)

production05 said...

Yeah, it sounds like the production will be heavy on the back end in 2010, especially Q4:

1) The plan estimated that the long-hole stoping permit would be available approx. 150 days after the Lamaque exploration (Bedard Dyke exploration) permit is granted. That permit was granted around late April/early May. If all is going well with the crown pillar study then we likely only have about 2.5 months (maybe less if we are fortunate) before we get the permit.

They will use a lot of the current Bedard Dyke infrastructure, such as the decline and the exploration drifts (now going into place), when they initiate long-hole stoping on the BD. I don`t know what all is needed and how long everything else will take before we can be in a position to start long-hole mining. It`s not clear at what point the crown pillar will have to go into place or how long that will take.

Nonetheless, it sounds like the company is fully expecting long-hole mining to start this year and for it to significantly contribute to daily tonnage:

``The Bedard Dyke is the second zone which the Company anticipates to develop in 2010, and production is expected to significantly increase upon commencement of mining.``


2) We`ll see what kind of tonnage the North Wall can contribute in Q4 (maybe Q3 also), as they are currently drifting over to there (perhpas via the BD decline):

``and also developing over to the North Wall zone``

chillby said...

Carib,
Can we trouble you to post any interesting trading days you see this week?
Out on a limb, I'd say we'll either see the turnaround for JM's this week or early next, and I'd put us in the forefront. Lots of fence-sitters...

paxman said...

gold will have support at around 1185.

Wingfong said...

Interesting!!

Wingfong said...

I am from the small island state of Singapore in the Far East a few thousand km from Canada. It was tro the power of the internet that I had by chance came to know CMM and more importantly this CMM bldg.
First a big thank you to all contributing members for your insights and information posted. It is tro reading these postings that I am able to speedily understand the potential of CMM and as a result had became an investor since early March this year. Particular I would like to thank Production05 for all your excellent postings. Frankly, it is tro your material that I begin to realise the size and scope of CMM and had firmed up my decision to elevate CMM as one of my core holdings.
Looking forward to learn more from you and from all contributing members too.
May all succeed in this investment.
Regards

Wingfong said...

Production05
From published figures there are 6million oz in all catagories and from previous records posted by you
lately, there is possibly 2million non 43-101 oz. As such, considering possible discoveries in Lamarque in the near future, it gives me the impression that there could possibly be +/-10million all catagories oz . Is my guess a good guess? (not considering San Juan yet)

chillby said...

Wingfong-
If you go to the Century website and check under "Operations/Canada" on the masthead, you'll see at least some of what exploration priorities are. Seems like there was some comment during the last conference call about ongoing drilling as well, though if my memory serves me right, it was moreso inside the Sigma complex.

paxman said...

I just saw august gold at 1217, if we close up here we are in for a big move up pending of course other developments.

Wingfong said...

chillby

Tks for the suggestion. yes, do read some useful information
Regards