Tuesday, July 6, 2010

Quick thoughts

A lot of really good process. A long ways to go, but Lamaque is starting to shape up nicely. Who knows, most of the analysts may still continue to take a wait and see approach on Century, but I think they will like the early stage process.


1) 4.37 g/t mill head grade including the development muck - likely to go higher once the higher grade Bedard Dyke takes on a more prominent production role

2) They are getting good ore body continuation within the Lamaque no. 2 mining area: ``The Company believes that additional `new` tonnage will continue to be mined within stope complexes that has never been placed, recorded or defined in the current resource base.`` This statement is likely very meaningful, as they now have mining data from actually mining the area and vital look ahead data from the new drill program.

3) The 770 tpd mining rate at the end of June is a good start. They are currently operating in 7 different stopes and they have 2 more stopes in development. Some early stage tonnage the Bedard Dyke may have been included in the 770 tpd, but BD should become a greater contributor once they get further into the dyke. I can see the July tpd averaging around 900 tpd for the month and maybe coming in at around 950 tpd at month end (higher if everything goes extremely well).

4) This note about the North Wall zone is very intriguing:

``The mine production crew continues to operate in seven separate stoping complexes in addition to the development crew opening two new stopes underground in the Lamaque #2 mining zone, and also developing over to the North Wall zone.``

The North Wall zone is a completely separate area from the Lamaque no. 2 mine. It looks like they have started up (at least) small scale/prelim development work on the North Wall zone. Development in that area was not suppose to begin until Q4. Perhaps (hopefully) it`s an indication that they feel positive about receiving the long-hole stoping permit early. The permit will allow for long-hole stope mining in both the Bedard Dyke and the North Wall zone.

5) Tonnes milled in June may be lower than tonnes mined. Historically, the milled circuit carried 2,000 - 2,500 ounces at any given time. Per the June 2nd conference call, about 1,000 ounces had been build back up in the circuit. Century figured another 1,000 ounces would need to be embedded in the circuit, to get back to 2,000 ounces (then capped). It`s not clear if we are now capped or if this will impact us in July.


6) We are looking at good gross revenue potential for Lamaque in July. Let`s make these assumptions for July:

*4.40 g/t grade

*900 average tpd mined and milled (milled tpd could be slightly lower if the 2,000 mill circuit cap was not reached at the end of June)

*96% recovery

*667 Lamaque ounces paid to DB (prepaid gold sales agreement)

*US$1,200 gold price

*currency conversion rate of 1.06


We these assumptions, we are looking at 3,667 in gross Lamaque gold production in July.

3,667 - 667 = 3,000 Lamaque ounces left over for Century

3,000 * US$1,200 * 1.06 = C$3,800,000 in potential Lamaque gross revenue in July

This is pretty good cash potential. It should be sufficient to cover operating expenses, with perhaps some dollars left over to support some development and exploration, and some Corporate G&A, especially if the new low profile equipment is as cost effective as it appears to be.

This is without any contributions from the very positive San Juan operation.

There is also still the potential of cash injection from the Finskiy warrants if extra cash is needed at any point in time (to tie us over until higher ramp up levels or until the US$8.5M next escrow amount comes available).

Century did a nice job pulling everything together over the past month - drastic improvement relative to end of May.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Completely agree. I'm really impressed with what they accomplished in 60 days of mining.
Century is no longer the issue here.

Anonymous said...

Again as always, p5, thanks for your fantastic analysis.