We seem to continually operate under the assumption that people are incapable of improvement, especially when they have any history of mistakes. Its true enough that some folks are ne'er- do- wells who continually make the wrong choices. Its an assumption that is incorrect, so often that it will never get into cliche school. Granted, some folks are born to make golden choices at every turn, or find some way to avoid responsibility for their actions. We engage an entire industry, on the great fear that something is inherently bad about making mistakes (lawyers). How in the world can you improve your performance if you aren't failing at some of your efforts? Our too-frequent credo is, "Once wrong, always wrong." Imagine an entire stream of expletives here, followed by a pronounced cow chip. I'll see your cow-chip and raise you an ingot.
I don't know any serious people who don't learn from their mistakes. Certainly not folks who go thousands of feet into the earth in search of largely invisible metal. It is absurd to compare the CMM of today with the CMM of three years ago. If Max Finskiy, Fran Scola, Ricardo Campoy, William Lamarque, Keith Hulley, Peter Ball and all the rest of our team are that stupid, then I hate to think what it says about us.
We have watched a remarkable event happen in front of our eyes at Lamaque, especially since last December. There are still some decisions to be made as we come through the next period, some new people to hire. Whatever the past is, it is. The recent past has much more to do, probability (and profitability)-wise, with what happens next than anything that happened before 2008. We certainly will learn a lot from the next 60 days.
I ask you, where else can you buy four million - plus ounces of producing gold for less than a buck a share? Look, for a minute, at the laws of moving averages. Show me how much the 200 day MA influences the 30 day. Or how much the 2006-2008 numbers mean relative to the charts we currently have?
Any thoughts?
28 comments:
anonymous,,,,,, whoever you are. Why don't you sign in and Identify yourself or if choose not to be a member atleast put your name to your comment. I believe your comment to be inappropriate and rude considering chillby's comment was marked "off-topic" comment. you owe him/her an apology, if not then I suggest your comment be removed and you head on over to SH where your type of posts seem to be the norm.
No worries, rhump. The fellow clearly can't do the math.
One of the glories of being an idiot is that I can watch some of the dealers getting squeezed out of their penny-play a little more each day, as more people draw their own (evidently positive) conclusions about CMM. And I can add, sometimes.
I wonder about posters who always show up in time to rain a little fear and loathing on other folks' parades. I'm happy for them, really-they sometimes provide good buying opportunities. Who do they work for? And do they wear black shirts to work? Why don't they like making money?
Ok- one more. Apologies for having a bit of fun. Its Friday night...newbies don't have real lives; but here's some useful information from our June conference call.
50,000 feet of drilling was contracted out. How long does it take to drill a 2500 meter hole, anyway?
Yes, it's a good point, but also it brings into question ethics. If you are trying to do your best and you make a mistake, then it is forgivable. Hopefully you learn the lesson and don't repeat the mistake again. If you do repeat the mistake, it means you are incompetent. I know that!
If on the other hand you are unethical, then mistakes are going to be made because you don't have the right starting point and they will always be repeated.
Hi Chillby,
Your efforts to present the profiles of members of the BOD are commendable, and much appreciated.
It seems that Messers Hulley and Lamarque are "affiliated" or "associated" with Mr Scola (e.g. both serve on Ecometal's Board, a Company headed by Mr.Scola). What I wonder is the nature of the relationship between Mr Scola & Mr Finskiy (since they invested in CMM jointly). Perhaps they are just personal friends? By the way, Mr Finskiy seems to be an accomlished young executive in his own right.
bigjohn37,
Thanks for that info. I didn't know EC was headed by the same guys. That kind a makes me nervous. What happened to EC anyways. Looks like there were some serious scandals. Do you know?
Keith, I am not familiar with any scandals at EC. Perhaps the "scandals" predate the involvement of Messers Scola, Hulley & Lamarque. On the other hand, EC's current share price at 17 cents does not say much about the Company's success in its business.
The scandal with EC was that one of the directors, Mark Kesselman, dumped a load of shares without informing anybody for 6 months, prior to the release of bad drill results. When it came out he was fired from the board. The BCSC slapped him with a cease trade order.
This is a write up on it from Otto
http://incakolanews.blogspot.com/2010/06/ecometals-ecv-scumbag-late-filing.html
He doesn't seem to have a high opinion of William Lamarque either, but doesn't give a reason why. Given Otto was way off base with his suggestion that CMM was funded by drug money it's probably best to say we don't know if his attack on Lamarque has any standing.
Oh, it seems like Hulley and lamarque also dumped shares before the bad news hit at EC metals, that would explain our depressed share price.
Century has good assets in good countries, but management have a track record of looking out for themselves, not shareholders. Caveat emptor.
O.k thanks guys. Now it makes sense why the share price is depressed. But I just don't CMM is in the same situation as EC. Hope we make it out alright.
Hi Keith, yes Century is quite different to EC. It looks like some of the management took a gamble on EC, but it didn't pay off, so they all dumped shares before retail investors new.
With Century we know the ounces are there, but we also know that there are questions about management. Therefore there are a number of newsletters that would never recommend the stock because they don't trust the management.
Having said that, as the mine ramps up to production we should get an increase in stock price, but we will always have the management question mark hanging over us.
There's a reason why this stock is cheap, simply put, management has been perhaps unethical with other companies they were involved in.
When the mania kicks in, this won' matter, just don't buy it for your mum!
It's sad that people will step over a dollar to pick up a nickel, but that seems to be the philosophy of management. if Finsky and Scola gave 0.5% each of their shares to a staff fund we'd probably shoot up, but they'd rather die very, very, very rich, instead of 0.5% less rich. Shoganai.
Hi guys,
My thinking is, they can dump all the shares they want to, just as long as they deliver a much higher share price for Century Mining shareholders. Let`s start with $1.00, then $1.50, then $2.00 and then hit Victor`s target of $2.50.
As a long time Century investor, I can speak for many, Century has been a share price nightmare for almost the entire history. With previous management, Century`s share price was insanely discounted. And, without reasonable support from institutional investors in the future (even afte Lamaque ramps up to higher levels), Century`s share price might have continued to be significantly discounted relative to mid-tier peers.
Something had to change. Century attended and presented at endless conferences this year. Result = no institutional support and virtually no change in share price. Century had 14 analysts go through Lamaque in early July, with feedback apparently being very positive. Result at end of July = only 1 analyst coverage initiated of the 14 (Union Securities, which we already had business dealings with recently). Century likely had meetings with a number of investment institutions. Result at end of July = pathetic (virtually no support no share price support, traders, like Jitney and retail flippers, totally control the share price - if we had made any progress with institutions then all these cheap shares would have been gobbled up in no time).
Let`s give this new management team a chance to see what they can do for the share price over the next 6 months or so. As Carib highlighted, this is uncharted waters for Century`s shareholders. This is the very first time that Peggy`s reputation is not and the front and centre of this company.
Having said all that, I must say this: IT`S CRITICAL THAT FINSKIY AND SCOLA FIND A WAY TO GET THE SHARE PRICE UP TO THE $.75 - $1.00 RANGE IN THE VERY NEAR FUTURE. This will demonstrate to the institutions and the market that they are not trying to suppress the share price to steal the company for peanuts. There are no signs that they are, but the institutions will now be suspicious now that Peggy is no longer on the BOD to fight this off. There is also now an imbalance on the BOD, with 3 of the 5 BOD members representing Finskiy and Scola. If the share price remains in this range, it is crucial that they rectify this problem very soon.
Institutions will not want to invest in Century unless they are absolutely sure that management is 100% committed to growing the share price. Institutions have targets to meet and bonuses to achieve, they are not going to move big dollars into a company where they are not fully comfortable with management`s intention.
IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT FINSKIY, SCOLA AND HULLEY IMMEDIATELY DEMONSTRATE TO THE MARKET AND INSTITUTIONS THAT THEY ARE FULLY COMMITTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY GROWING THE SHARE PRICE.
Severstal (Russian majority owner) has done tremendous damage to the Canadian market (in similar situations), IMO. With Century now having an imbalance board (without Peggy), institutions are going to need proof that Finskiy is not going to now become another Severstal (since he now has control of the BOD until they fix the problem).
I personally don`t think Finskiy has changed his stripes, however, I do think he needs to find a way to demonstrate this to the market.
Actually, believe it or not, the promotion of Mr. McNutt might be a huge sign that Finskiy does not have intentions of suppressing the share price in the future. Finskiy could have easily brought in his own Ops guy, and have his Ops guy manipulate things on the operations front and control the positives that come out of the mine. That is the easily way of suppressing the share price.
This was a key tactic for Severstal, in suppressing High River Gold`s share price. Among many other things, Severstal put all of their people in key positions. They held back key operations progress info and key exploration results from the market. They entirely eliminated IR and any positive communications to the market. They stopped attending conferences to promote the company. They moved the head office to Russia. They wrote off excellent assets to mask quarterly net profits. I can literally list about 20 other suppression tactics they used.
We (High River Gold minority shareholders) were very successful in fighting off Severstal, but it was very hard - a long hard battle. We had absolutely no help from the regulatory boards. Severstal is slime to the core - they used all the slime tactics in the world, IMO.
I think it`s a very positive first sign that Finskiy didn`t replace the very important Ops position with one of his people. I would like to see Finskiy`s group make more positive signals like this. Another key will be how they communicate to the public. If the news releases are very upbeat (and they conitinue with the monthly updates) then it will be another positive sign that they are not suppressing the share price.
Hi Production05,
I hope F&S don't suppress the share price. I don't know much about Finiski, but his other investment Etruscan Resources share price is also flat for a long time.
Peter A Ball mentioned that there will not be a monthly update this time, but they will include it in the q2 end of August.
I think it is very important as you said, that Century release an update to July progress.
I think all of us should call Century board of directors to put out a news release soon to bring some confidence back.
Hi All
I am impressed with the credentials of the respective director of our board (Max Finskiy, Fran Scola, Ricardo Campoy, William Lamarque, Keith Kelley, Peter Ball) and do believe that CMM's world-class deposits are in the hands of men of substance and purpose.
Having said that, it seems what is crucial is their real intentions and how do these controlling interests live up to their impressive credentials ( indeed lengthy when they are being put in words)
From the days I knew little about CMM to knowing what I know now about:-
1) the management/BOD
2) their often-mentioned growth strategies and directions
3) ability to make apparently very major unplesent decision
4) the realistic financials in place
5) mines's very satisfactory works in progress
6) the use of modern mining equipment improving productivity and lowering mining costs
7) committed drill programes
8) huge mining properties in some of the best jurisdictions
9) aggressive compilation and evaluation of mining data employing state of the art 3D resourse modelling techniques
10) the fairly large and upgradeable to 5000tpd operating mill
..cont
11) gold is continuously being poured and stored
12) the large and growing reserve/resource
13) reasonably good and above average ore grades
14) consistent and convincing recommendations by a knowledgeable analyst who had recently visited the co., suited up and went underground to observe the low profile equipments in action and more so had followed CMM for a fair period of time
15) potential fair valuation suggested
16) favourable stand out peer comparisions
17) price technicals
18) present gold price ranges and more importantly
19) the gold price's supportive macro economical environment that is very like (some said is inevitable) to continue into the future
On account of all these known knowns and known unknowns, I cannot, but feel very encouraged and hopeful that, going forward, CMM will soon have its days in the sun.
Being a die-hard optimist and an investor, I am obviously biased. But by all sensible and ligical accounts, however I slice it, I find it hard not to believe I am not staring into the face of a high probability play.
Some burning questions:- ..cont
some burning questions:-
a) Scola, Lamarque and Campoy of EC lineage seems to hint at some negativities and lob-siding the board. Am I right? ( I hope I am dead wrong)
b) PK was being put up as a less than desirable face/front for CMM. Now that she is gone, it is hinted that there is no force to counter off the possible share price suppression/ assets stripping
at the expence of private investors. Are we cought between the sea and a hard place?
c) Being a +40% controlling interest of a trully asset-backed up and coming mid-tier gold producer, is it probable that they are so foolish as to kill the goose that lay the golden eggs? Is it not a case where CMM actually offers an empire-building stepping stone if it is nuctured and growed rather than opt for short-sighted meagre gains in strip and deplete?
d) Finskiy, at age 45 and :-
-born in 1966
-1990 graduated from The Moscow Financial Institute ( Econimics, Finance & Credits)
-2005 graduated from the University of Ministry of Internal Affairs (lawyer, Jurisprudence) Saint- Petersburg
-1993-1995 Chairman of the Board Of Commercial Bank "Moscow Bank for Reconstruction & Development"
-1995-1998 President of Commercial Bank "Regional Alliance Bank"
-1998-2001 Deputy Chairman of the board of Commercial Bank "International Co for Finance & Investments (ICFI)"
- 2001-2008 Deputy General Director Of Joint Stock Co "Mining and Metallurgical Co "Norisk Nickel"
-2008-to date President of Mining and Matallurgical Co (MMC) "Intergeo"
Is he not a man of honour? Does he not want to make a name for himself in the industry?
e) PK only left a few days ago, are we expecting too eagerly for positive responses from analysts and institutional stock investors? Perhaps one should factor in a bit more time considering that institutional desicions takes time and incidentally this is still summer and the summer doldrum (not goldrum) is supposed to be still on, calander wise.
Even though had gotton off much from the chest, however, digesting all recent postings over the past few days, my on-solid-ground-feeling seems to have given way to one-foot-back-to-the-mud type of feeling. How silly! Hope that things are genuinelly looking up and we don't have to look over our shoulders for bad things to happen.
Hello Wingfong:
Just to correct one item: Mr. Campoy has, to my knowledge, no previous associations with EC, Finskiy, Hulley or Lamarque.
At EC, Kesselman was fired and CTO'd, while Hulley was never censured at all (I have no other details). I read this as evidence of Hulley's integrity (there isn't any reason why he'd have been left out of the CTO if he had done what Mark did.)
In the financing agreement, it was agreed that F&S would be allowed two members on the BOD, and we see that there are three. We have witnessed the "friendly" takeover of Century as of this last AGM.
There are two ways to read this, all nicely outlined in the commentary. I'm a little bit with you on the "one-foot-in-the-mud" thing right now, but if we aren't all somewhat anxious right now, then we aren't human.
Things I would view as encouraging:
-transparency about our progress and production.
-the installation of a new CEO with spotless credentials and good knowledge of both our history and, of course, mining.
-incentive program for the miners - it has worked very well at San Juan, and would go a long way towards repairing our reputation at Val D'Or.
-increased institutional ownership.
During the past week, we have seen a big jump in the number of institutional houses playing our stock. A number of them are (relative to volume) heavy net buyers. We had two days last week when total TSX/OTC volume exceeded 2 million shares. Jitney, Canaccord and TDS are still using the positive pressure to play for pennies, but hopefully they will begin to see the big picture...if and when management shows some credible attitudes.
One of the people that keeps me here is Peter Ball. It would be ruinous for his reputation to be caught up with mal-entendres. He knows the industry, and they all know him. I'm pretty sure that he has an accurate picture of CMM from top to bottom, and his job title notwithstanding, most of his career is in front of him. He is not a man to "...step over a dollar to pick up a nickel." (I like that one!)
We don't know if F&S or the rest of them read this blog, but we do know where they all work. Email is a wonderful thing...
Not the offensive one..
There is a posting on an interesting
gold oscillator: Investorvillage..Precious Metals board msg # 4962.
It looks like gold stocks are ready to turn up. IMO recent down-turn in AU prices were caused in part by big money getting ready to take advantage of next round of QE (if not already taking advantage)
Peter
Hi Chillby
Tks for the correction. If I read your past postings correctly, you seems to have high regards for Hulley, Peter and Campoy. Though I do not know what ultimate weight they carry, nevertheless, it is still a reassuring factor to note your assessment
As you had said, what transpire over the next 60 days will probably give us a better grasp of situation.
Frankly, I feel a little reassured upon reading Finskiy's credentials particularly the positions he held in the banks and other positions held in his past career (assume these bio data are correct, got them from one web site). It gives me the impression that he is outstanding enough (probably well connected enough) to have been chosen to head all those senior positions at such young age and hopefully, in between the lines, it also means that he has excellent traits of character and business ethics that all those commercial/national interests found desirable.
Hope that this is not a fickle of my wishful thinking.
Among the miners I follow, the charts have made interesting changes from the summer norms this last week. A number of them have seen volume spikes - even companies two and 3 years out from production-and nearly all in a positive direction. OBVs, money flows, share accumulation curves are beginning to show strength.
Our own charts look rather promising: our OBV has taken a measurable jump in the last few days, and we seem to be under accumulation, notwithstanding Friday's slight settling back. The short-term measures are all either strongly bullish or not trending - an improvement of sorts! Several signs of a trend reversal show up in the chart analysis.
Bon chance for the week!
Wingfong-
My regard for our management derives mostly from watching what they have accomplished since January. Their backgrounds lend credibility to the idea that they will achieve their goals.
With respect to Peter and the other officers: these are the public faces of the company, and they can ill afford to be associated with looters if they expect to have decent careers, nor do I think they would choose to. Since they have accepted positions with CMM, and clearly are working quite hard at bringing the company up, I'm inclined to deduce that they have some faith in our BOD. Nobody knows better the inner state of a company than its top employees. Our IR man is held in rather high esteem by his peers, so far as I can tell, even if the company name tends to bring out the occasional harrumph or snigger.
That is one of the things, I think, that draws me to Century: we may be underdogs now, but maybe for the first time ever, we have a very strong chance of turning that contempt into surprise, followed by a great deal of respect. People love a comeback story - those are the ones that leave a mark on peoples' memories.
Insofar as Mr. Finskiy goes-one does not succeed in Russia AND go about in the public view without being very smart, highly principled and very well connected. It takes all three to remain alive.
Peter Anonymous-
Can you post a link to that message? All I can find is Gretchen Morgensen's comments about the subprime meltdown.
Thanks!
Well said, Chillby, well said. Incidentally, prickly your mind is so rewarding sometimes!
Xia Xia Ni
Had an incorrect msg # try
ChuckKrew 49615
http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=144&mn=49615&pt=msg&mid=9337439
more recent post
http://www.investorvillage.com/mbthread.asp?mb=144&tid=9338825&showall=1
Peter
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