Monday, November 22, 2010

Depth 3:24

Time # Size Bid
13:18 1 28000 0.385
07:39 8 150219 0.38
11/19 4 35000 0.375
11/16 8 53550 0.37
11/08 2 4500 0.36
11/18 1 3000 0.355
11/16 5 235340 0.35
11/18 1 20000 0.345
11/18 3 34500 0.34
08:44 4 21000 0.33
11/16 1 20000 0.305
11/08 5 40000 0.30
11:32 1 3000 0.29
10/28 1 5000 0.20
11/16 1 3500 0.065
Ask Size # Time
0.39 169400 6 11/19
0.395 261000 3 11/18
0.40 170000 15 11/18
0.41 54000 7 11/17
0.42 6333 2 09:02
0.435 12500 2 11/16
0.44 95500 6 11/16
0.445 14000 1 11/12
0.45 27000 5 11/09
0.46 41500 5 11/09
0.465 2000 1 11/10
0.47 97000 4 11/02
0.475 91000 4 11/05
0.48 188500 6 11/02
0.485 92000 2 11/11
0.49 91300 5 11/04
0.50 80250 6 09/29
0.51 32500 3 11/04
0.52 95000 1 10/25
0.53 2000 1 11/11
0.54 19000 4 11/01
0.55 2000 1 11/01
0.56 11500 2 11/01
0.57 2000 1 11/16
0.58 46000 2 11/01
0.59 66500 2 10/13
0.60 25056 5 11/09
0.62 45000 1 11/15
0.64 74 1 11/10
0.65 15000 1 10/26

13 comments:

Jimmy said...

Better hope we don't fall through $0.38 or it'll be a nice drop to $0.35...

Anonymous said...

where in hell did all these cheap shares come from, tax loss sells?
grrr
guess I best get to buyin
blizzy

Wolf Advocate said...

Hell knows no fury worse than that of a 'retired CEO' who bought Century Mining stock @ $.04 / share with borrowed company money.

Glorieux said...

People are selling to get into the PP folks, nothing magical here. Once the PP closes, I expect the SP to increase.

Anonymous said...

Dennis said:

An interesting dilemma for the PP. Should they scrub the PP at .39 + 1/2 share warrant @ .60 and then buyup their total position at $.38.

On the 12,820,513 shares at $.39 the saving is $128,205.00 (@ .38)

On the 1/2 share warrants at $.60, (if bought now at $.38, the saving is $1,410,255.00

A total saving of $1,538,460.00. If I had this kind of money at my disposal I'd use the savings to enhance my holding position which would give me an additional 4,048,579 shares.

Instead of potentially owning 19,230,763 shares for $8.8 millions, they end up with 23,279,341 shares for the same $8.8 millions.

And then there's the Agents commissions and Agents options package. It is starting to boggle my mind as to the effects of what is in fact "dilution" gone crazy.

Another reason why Management have to do everything possible to get the share price up so that PP's like this don't go sour.

Or am I missing something?

Dennis, New Brunswick.

Anonymous said...

Dennis, you are definitely missing something. You are assuming the warrants are exercised for sure. The way to think about warrants is that they limit your downside (cuz you don't have to excercise under$0.60)... if share price goes to zero, you don't lose anything other than the right to excercise. Also, because you don't have to pay for the shares until you excercise your warrants, you save on interest as well.

Mike said...

Concerns about not meeting estimates and notification of investors....

I understand these concerns .. (not meeting estimates) .. but I do not blame the Interum CEO for this. Was Peggy that set those numbers. ..

Peggy resigned July 28 Q3 was 1/3 over by then .. not much Hully .. (or anyone else for that matter) could do about the previous forcast at that point. What he could have done was let the markets know a bit sooner (but you do not take over a job like that .. and three days later start lowering estimates .. then the market would really freak out .. )

Imagine .. the headlines " CEO resigns" followed by "estimates lowered" ..followed by .. "out of cash"

From the conference call .. Hully came in .. and focused on gettting production up .. "and thats it".

If you downgrade an estimate .. that means you have to downgrade it to "something" .. What would that something be ? One thing you can not say to the markets is "I dont know" (put that up with the other negative headlines ..)

One Jumbo was operating through Q3 .. only in October did the other two become operational.

Around the second week of October (having hired contractors to drive the new equipment and speed up ramping into Bedard and North slope) .. they finally get production up to 1000 + tonnes/day.

After operating at that rate for 3 weeks or so .. Hully probably sat down with the team and said .. "What is a realistic target for 2010 and 2011" ?

It was already the first week of November at this point .. prior to this time you really could not have given a realistic estimate for 2010... and the Q3 numbers and conference call is in a week.

I think that the new number is realistic .. and much progress has been made " since Q3.. but as you say .. the market is more than a bit weary of "CMM predictions".

"IF" at the end of November .. CMM can say .. " 6 weeks of production 1000 +tonnes/day .. @ 3.8-4.2 grams/tonne"
that would be quite a big deal.

If you roughly guestimate Lamaque costs at 2.6 Million/month:

Q3 numbers (530 tonnes/day @ 2.86 = 1500 oz/month x $1200/oz) = 1.8 Million (losing 800 K/month)

at 1000 tonnes/day @ 4 g/tonne = 4000 oz/month x $1300/oz = 5.2 Million = (making money )

It is said that the best time to buy is when there is "Blood in the Streets"

The reason it is tough to buy "when there is blood in the streets" is because that is the time when everyone else is selling.

Clearly from the Q3 numbers .. the patient is bleeding ... doctors are hovering over the patient debating whether or not the patient is even going to survive.... outside in the waiting room .. nervous family members.

As an investor you ask yourself one main question .. " Will the patient survive"
(note to self ! ... fund managers investing other peoples money .. generally do not invest at this time)

"If" the CMM can show 6 weeks @ 1000 tonnes/day (4 g/tonne) .. for the end of November .. and can sustain this rate through December ...

I think the patient will survive.

Mike said...

Concerns about not meeting estimates and notification of investors....

I understand these concerns .. (not meeting estimates) .. but I do not blame the Interum CEO for this. Was Peggy that set those numbers. ..

Peggy resigned July 28 Q3 was 1/3 over by then .. not much Hully .. (or anyone else for that matter) could do about the previous forcast at that point. What he could have done was let the markets know a bit sooner (but you do not take over a job like that .. and three days later start lowering estimates .. then the market would really freak out .. )

Imagine .. the headlines " CEO resigns" followed by "estimates lowered" ..followed by .. "out of cash"

From the conference call .. Hully came in .. and focused on gettting production up .. "and thats it".

If you downgrade an estimate .. that means you have to downgrade it to "something" .. What would that something be ? One thing you can not say to the markets is "I dont know" (put that up with the other negative headlines ..)

One Jumbo was operating through Q3 .. only in October did the other two become operational.

Around the second week of October (having hired contractors to drive the new equipment and speed up ramping into Bedard and North slope) .. they finally get production up to 1000 + tonnes/day.

After operating at that rate for 3 weeks or so .. Hully probably sat down with the team and said .. "What is a realistic target for 2010 and 2011" ?

It was already the first week of November at this point .. prior to this time you really could not have given a realistic estimate for 2010... and the Q3 numbers and conference call is in a week.

I think that the new number is realistic .. and much progress has been made " since Q3.. but as you say .. the market is more than a bit weary of "CMM predictions".

"IF" at the end of November .. CMM can say .. " 6 weeks of production 1000 +tonnes/day .. @ 3.8-4.2 grams/tonne"
that would be quite a big deal.

If you roughly guestimate Lamaque costs at 2.6 Million/month:

Q3 numbers (530 tonnes/day @ 2.86 = 1500 oz/month x $1200/oz) = 1.8 Million (losing 800 K/month)

at 1000 tonnes/day @ 4 g/tonne = 4000 oz/month x $1300/oz = 5.2 Million = (making money )

It is said that the best time to buy is when there is "Blood in the Streets"

The reason it is tough to buy "when there is blood in the streets" is because that is the time when everyone else is selling.

Clearly from the Q3 numbers .. the patient is bleeding ... doctors are hovering over the patient debating whether or not the patient is even going to survive.... outside in the waiting room .. nervous family members.

As an investor you ask yourself one main question .. " Will the patient survive"
(note to self ! ... fund managers investing other peoples money .. generally do not invest at this time)

"If" the CMM can show 6 weeks @ 1000 tonnes/day (4 g/tonne) .. for the end of November .. and can sustain this rate through December ...

I think the patient will survive.

Mike said...

Concerns about not meeting estimates and notification of investors....

I understand these concerns .. (not meeting estimates) .. but I do not blame the Interum CEO for this. Was Peggy that set those numbers. ..

Peggy resigned July 28 Q3 was 1/3 over by then .. not much Hully .. (or anyone else for that matter) could do about the previous forcast at that point. What he could have done was let the markets know a bit sooner (but you do not take over a job like that .. and three days later start lowering estimates .. then the market would really freak out .. )

Imagine .. the headlines " CEO resigns" followed by "estimates lowered" ..followed by .. "out of cash"

From the conference call .. Hully came in .. and focused on gettting production up .. "and thats it".

If you downgrade an estimate .. that means you have to downgrade it to "something" .. What would that something be ? One thing you can not say to the markets is "I dont know" (put that up with the other negative headlines ..)

One Jumbo was operating through Q3 .. only in October did the other two become operational.

Around the second week of October (having hired contractors to drive the new equipment and speed up ramping into Bedard and North slope) .. they finally get production up to 1000 + tonnes/day.

After operating at that rate for 3 weeks or so .. Hully probably sat down with the team and said .. "What is a realistic target for 2010 and 2011" ?

It was already the first week of November at this point .. prior to this time you really could not have given a realistic estimate for 2010... and the Q3 numbers and conference call is in a week.

I think that the new number is realistic .. and much progress has been made " since Q3.. but as you say .. the market is more than a bit weary of "CMM predictions".

"IF" at the end of November .. CMM can say .. " 6 weeks of production 1000 +tonnes/day .. @ 3.8-4.2 grams/tonne"
that would be quite a big deal.

If you roughly guestimate Lamaque costs at 2.6 Million/month:

Q3 numbers (530 tonnes/day @ 2.86 = 1500 oz/month x $1200/oz) = 1.8 Million (losing 800 K/month)

at 1000 tonnes/day @ 4 g/tonne = 4000 oz/month x $1300/oz = 5.2 Million = (making money )

It is said that the best time to buy is when there is "Blood in the Streets"

The reason it is tough to buy "when there is blood in the streets" is because that is the time when everyone else is selling.

Clearly from the Q3 numbers .. the patient is bleeding ... doctors are hovering over the patient debating whether or not the patient is even going to survive.... outside in the waiting room .. nervous family members.

As an investor you ask yourself one main question .. " Will the patient survive"
(note to self ! ... fund managers investing other peoples money .. generally do not invest at this time)

"If" the CMM can show 6 weeks @ 1000 tonnes/day (4 g/tonne) .. for the end of November .. and can sustain this rate through December ...

I think the patient will survive.

Mike said...

I understand your concern .. (not meeting estimates) .. but I do not blame the Interum CEO for this. Was Peggy that set those numbers. ..

Peggy resigned July 28 Q3 was 1/3 over by then .. not much Hully .. (or anyone else for that matter) could do about the previous forcast at that point. What he could have done was let the markets know a bit sooner (but you do not take over a job like that .. and three days later start lowering estimates .. then the market would really freak out .. )

Imagine .. the headlines " CEO resigns" followed by "estimates lowered" ..followed by .. "out of cash"

From the conference call .. Hully came in .. and focused on gettting production up .. "and thats it".

If you downgrade an estimate .. that means you have to downgrade it to "something" .. What would that something be ? One thing you can not say to the markets is "I dont know" (put that up with the other negative headlines ..)

One Jumbo was operating through Q3 .. only in October did the other two become operational.

Around the second week of October (having hired contractors to drive the new equipment and speed up ramping into Bedard and North slope) .. they finally get production up to 1000 + tonnes/day.

After operating at that rate for 3 weeks or so .. Hully probably sat down with the team and said .. "What is a realistic target for 2010 and 2011" ?

It was already the first week of November at this point .. prior to this time you really could not have given a realistic estimate for 2010... and the Q3 numbers and conference call is in a week.

I think that the new number is realistic .. and much progress has been made " since Q3.. but as you say .. the market is more than a bit weary of "CMM predictions".

"IF" at the end of November .. CMM can say .. " 6 weeks of production 1000 +tonnes/day .. @ 3.8-4.2 grams/tonne"
that would be quite a big deal.

If you roughly guestimate Lamaque costs at 2.6 Million/month:

Q3 numbers (530 tonnes/day @ 2.86 = 1500 oz/month x $1200/oz) = 1.8 Million (losing 800 K/month)

at 1000 tonnes/day @ 4 g/tonne = 4000 oz/month x $1300/oz = 5.2 Million = (making money )

It is said that the best time to buy is when there is "Blood in the Streets"

The reason it is tough to buy "when there is blood in the streets" is because that is the time when everyone else is selling.

Clearly from the Q3 numbers .. the patient is bleeding ... doctors are hovering over the patient debating whether or not the patient is even going to survive.... outside in the waiting room .. nervous family members.

As an investor you ask yourself one main question .. " Will the patient survive"
(note to self ! ... fund managers investing other peoples money .. generally do not invest at this time)

"If" the CMM can show 6 weeks @ 1000 tonnes/day (4 g/tonne) .. for the end of November .. and can sustain this rate through December ...

I think the patient will survive.

psl said...

If you buy in a PP you are stuck for the long-term. There will be a minimum hold period and if it is flow through shares it could be up to 2 years. Very risky. Should be extra money that you will never need.

real_economics said...

Mike great post.

Prior to the CC and quarterly's I did not understand the PPs at all. After the CC, the PPs and timing made much more sense to me.

I agree moving forward now that we are over the hump I think we are in great shape.

When you think about it, the next few months of news will all be positive.

Increasing production. . reaching cash flow positive status.. . new CEO . . increased grade.

We will also be reaching the end of tax loss selling which may be another negative.

These are all news items that could potentially create a series of days where we move up 10-30% which combine to a serious 50-100% move up from here which may then form a long-term uptrend.

This is not uncommon for equities in the status and market cap range of CMM.

RE

real_economics said...

Mike,
I also agree patience is key. I've lost many 10-20 bagger opportunities in the past because I was too happy with a 200-300% gain.

I did this because right on the first double and triple of the revaluation I figured things could not get much better and because these often occurred in the blink of an eye in some cases over a single month.

I later found that the full revaluation is generally not achieved until at least a full year of full steady state production. (I was selling after a quarter or so of reaching full steady state production)

So in the case of CMM, assuming we reach full steady state production at Lamaque in Q4 2011, for those willing to wait until Q4 2012 or even better 2013 before starting to take some profits, I think the gains will simply be MASSIVE.

Everything up to then, is fun to track, but is basically "noise" for the real venture investor looking for the maximum upside.

RE