Friday, November 19, 2010

Howdy All

I want to start this post by saying that, while it isn't my intention to cause anyone here any undue stress, contempt, etc. at what I have to say, I do hope that it will stimulate some discussion between the many new shareholders we seem to have posting here and the old-timers who have borne many episodes of CMM's worldly existence.
First, I think it is clear to everyone why we are so undervalued relative to our assets. Having said that, however, there are a few things about the Q3 and conference call that I found to be extremely positive.
1: There were more participants and questions on this call than I have ever heard, by leaps and bounds. This serves notice to management that the shareholder base is growing (plenty of purchases the last 2 days to go along with the meltdown). It will be harder to ignore the retail base. I'm pretty sure that I heard KH state twice or three times that we would be hearing more on a regular basis from the company.

2: KH himself said, twice, that "...the worst is behind us..." or "...we have finally reached the turning point..." While there are people in the world who, having said that, I would immediately ingest a large grain of salt, I am not inclined to eat NaCl when Keith Hulley says this. He may have a history of being disappointed by some of his associates, but none of those work at CMM any longer. That single point is why none of the current disappointments bother me, because...

3: ...(I know I'm going to light a few of you up here) starting a gold mine is not like starting a software company. Think about it - you can drill, dig and shove all you want, but the reality of stoping, pitting and blasting is where the meat comes to the table-or not. In less than 12 months, CMM has accomplished what Watters and a host of other miners have not - they have found paydirt in Lamaque. If we are shunting low-grade ore through while we get the mill up to speed, learning the new equipment and all that, I don't see why this is a problem. What it means, long term, is that a bunch of low-grade ore got processed while it was profitable to dig it up. If gold goes back towards 800.00 an ounce next year or the year after, we'll all be saying how smart the management was to run this stuff while gold was high. If gold doesn't go back below 1000.00/0z, then we'll reap the benefits of a steady rate of production of high-grade ore.

Anybody who thinks going a mile below the surface of the earth to find folded, twisted veins is a piece of cake hasn't really thought much about it. Having been a student of and investor in gold mines for over 30 years, I feel safe in saying that NOTHING that has happened to this company in the last year surprises me, except how well they have done in the face of constant derision and difficulty.

I quite agree with the rest of the posters here, that we would love to be riding up with the rest of the market right now. I am quite content to wait, add shares and let the current management keep doing what they are doing - because they are doing exactly what they told me they'd be doing for the last 6 months, jot and tittle. Forecast up? Forecast down? It doesn't bother me at this stage of the game - its normal. If this happens a year after commercial production begins, then I'll worry about it.

My read on Q3? I'm sorry that we didn't have more positive surprises. At the same time, what I heard was no different than what I expected to hear. And if some of you think that this sort of business is a cakewalk, then I suggest that you stick to whatever short-term gains you can find in another marketplace. If you can find any, that is - CMM will be entering the best period of its entire "life" next year, at precisely the time when investment houses will have to turn to mining companies to generate profits - and that is a rising tide that will float this boat.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Thumbs up Chillby,

I agree totally and have a strong position with CMM and will keep this core position. I comment that we have all been brought here to the story at CMM and that we will be well rewarded if we go along for the ride.

Wopster

Wingfong said...

Very perceptive, right to the point. My salutation. To repeat what I had posted before, I am of the opinion that management is delivering and that gettting from 300tpd to 800tpd and from 1000tpd to 1500tpd to 2000tpd are not quite the same. In the former it sure would have entailed much non- ore-producing ground works, equipment run-ins, work force recruitment and lots of heavy liftings and pains. In the latter, having stabilised at 1000tpd should mean most of the madness have come to pass and methods prevail. In short, production going forward will be more predictable in my opinion. I believe the guidance of 80k-90k oz for 2011 is achievable.

BuillonBull said...

Very well said.

bigjohn37 said...

Howdy to you too, Chillby;
Thanks for injecting some objectivity to the unfolding CMM saga & debate. There seems to be some light at the end of the tunnel. I just hope that the CEO situation will get resolved soon. GLTA.