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Share price going to fall tomorrow maybe .39?? Kinda glad i sold everything at the same price i bought it. Still waiting to re-enter though end of December if things get better.
we all knew that the results from Q3 would not be stellar. Guidance is down again. had to move a lot of muck to get at the higher head grades which supposedly they are there. Remember cynikaL (D), that the market is a forward looking vehicle. Q3 is in the past and some will sell based on tonight's NR, but the best for CMM is ahead, so it may be a good time to re-enter. I don't believe you will need to rush to buy, but you might have a golden opportunity tomorrow to get back in. I have been a buyer in the low 40's and will buy more if it drops tomorrow. I am not worried with a drop now, as I believe the WORST is behind and tomorrow may be the AU'en opportunity. Does CMM have enough money to carry them to commercial production. I don't know, but I sure hope so.... Finisky was probably not happy with the progress and was not prepared to cash in anymore warrants at this time. Who knows. This company is always full of surprises. Lets see what the conference call holds. Not banking on much but it is worth a listen. Good Luck!
The links to the Sedar Docs are posted in the Information links.
Not a whole lot of positives, but there is one nugget not mentioned in the NR:
On October 19, 2010, Deutsche Bank AG, London Branch released US $4,000,000 from the Performance Reserve Account in consideration of the Company undertaking to use best efforts to promptly enter into contractual documentation for the delivery of gold. The release of the funds was not based on achievement of the production-based performance hurdle.
In connection with the negotiated release, the Company has entered into a term sheet with Deutsche Bank whereby upon the Lamaque mine meeting or exceeding an annualized production rate (based upon the sum of production for a period of two consecutive months) of at least 50,000 ounces of gold (monthly production rate of 4,167 ounces of gold), the Company agrees to sell 500 ounces of gold per month for 36 months to Deutsche Bank. The price is determined as the lesser of the market price on the date of delivery and the price on the date Lamaque meets the production milestone plus US $200 per ounce.
Seems like lots of you are down on the Q3 Report. What did you expect? Commercial production?
We knew TPD (and Grades to a lesser extent) was not going to be stellar. The market certainly priced in <40k ounces at Lamaque. It's not like CMM lowered 2011 projected ounces. How is this so bad that it's not priced in already?
This is what the market has officially been told about production since Q2.
August 13: July production 820 tpd and currently close to 1,000 tpd.
November 12: Currently 1,000 tpd.
Therefore the market should expect a number between 820 and 1,000 tpd for Q3.
Actual Q3: 570 tpd
June production was 1,870 oz.
Avg monthly production in Q3: 1,486 oz.
Now I know that Peter Ball was telling people who called him in October that the production had fallen to 400 - 600 tpd, but that is improper disclosure.
If we averaged 820 tpd for the first half of Q3, then we only averaged 300 tpd for the second half to get 570 tpd for the quarter. No wonder they stopped the monthly updates.
Now they are saying that we will do a minimum of 9,600 oz in Q4. We will need to average 1,000 tpd at a grade of 3.5 g/tonne in Q4.
Credibility has always been an issue with this company. They have a history of revising forecasts downwards and not making the lowered forecasts. How credible is the 2011 forecast? Not very based on history.
What is imperative now is to report monthly production ounces, complete with tpd and g/tonne starting with October. To make the lowered 2010 guidance, they should be somewhere close to 3,000 oz in October.
If they don't do this we won't know the Q4 numbers until April.
For 2011 they need to show how they are getting 80,000 oz by providing a forecast for every single month and then provide actuals at the end of every month. This is the only way to regain any credibility.
Carib, I agree with you 100%. Century is going to have to have an excellent Q4 just to meet the decreased guidance level of 18-20k ounces.
For the first 9 months of 2010, they managed to produce just 8,400 ounces out of Lamaque and are now saying they can produce a minimum of 18,000 for the year. That means they will have to produce 214% more gold in Q4 alone than they have in Q1, Q2 and Q3 combined just to meet the low end of their target. Doesn't seem probable to me with the information we just received from Q3 regarding head grade, tpd and the source of ore to the mill.
Likewise, the company has given the market no proof whatsoever that they can meet their maintained guidance of 80-90k ounces from Lamaque for 2011.
Constant failure to meet even downgraded guidance projections are not exactly confidence inspiring.
However, having said all that I am impressed at least with the company's honest explanation of their failures. This can be read on page 24 of the Q3 report.
Additionally, the drill results from Bedard as can be seen on slide 17 are fantastic, especially over 14g/t over 64m. I think Century should place priority on putting out a new NI 43-101 that includes Bedard resources, as so much of this company's immediate term future is riding on what happens with Bedard (namely if they don't continue development and increase tpd out of bedard they will miss another goal - the 1500 year end tpd target).
I also agree wholeheartedly that the company absolutely NEEDS to reinstate monthly production updates now that the worst of the worst is (hopefully) behind us. I don't think the market could take until the Annual in April to see what happened in Q4.
And the market certainly has not priced in a 100% drop in Lamaque guidance. We will feel a bit of pain tomorrow but it will all hopefully materialize as a long term gain.
From 60,000 Lamaque projected ounces in 2010....to 40,000 Lamaque projected ounces in 2010....now down to 20,000 Lamaque projected ounces...
Not quite true. From Jan - May the forecast was 45,000 oz. In Sept it dropped to 25,000 to 30,000 oz and now it is 18,000 - 20,000.
It doesn't change the fact that guidance was lowered twice in the same year. And yes, there have been unforeseen issues, but there are always start-up issues. The 45,000 oz was never a reasonable forecast. I believe that 80,000 is a reasonable forecast for 2011, providing the grade can get close to 4.5 g/tonne.
Well, i see it as an opportunity, but i am not going to rush in. I already have a strategic entry planned with a friend and will see what changes in the company until then. My current goal, though not realistic to you, is to triple my current investment so i have a lot more to invest in CMM when the time comes. All under the condition that we see some more positive direction with the company and its management.
13 comments:
From 60,000 Lamaque projected ounces in 2010....to 40,000 Lamaque projected ounces in 2010....now down to 20,000 Lamaque projected ounces...
ok...now we know why the share price drop to 45c from 85c and never recovered.
zzzzzzzzzzz.....bleeding by 1000 papercuts with this company.
Weary Canuck
Share price going to fall tomorrow maybe .39?? Kinda glad i sold everything at the same price i bought it. Still waiting to re-enter though end of December if things get better.
we all knew that the results from Q3 would not be stellar. Guidance is down again. had to move a lot of muck to get at the higher head grades which supposedly they are there. Remember cynikaL (D), that the market is a forward looking vehicle. Q3 is in the past and some will sell based on tonight's NR, but the best for CMM is ahead, so it may be a good time to re-enter. I don't believe you will need to rush to buy, but you might have a golden opportunity tomorrow to get back in. I have been a buyer in the low 40's and will buy more if it drops tomorrow. I am not worried with a drop now, as I believe the WORST is behind and tomorrow may be the AU'en opportunity. Does CMM have enough money to carry them to commercial production. I don't know, but I sure hope so.... Finisky was probably not happy with the progress and was not prepared to cash in anymore warrants at this time. Who knows. This company is always full of surprises. Lets see what the conference call holds. Not banking on much but it is worth a listen. Good Luck!
The links to the Sedar Docs are posted in the Information links.
Not a whole lot of positives, but there is one nugget not mentioned in the NR:
On October 19, 2010, Deutsche Bank AG, London Branch released US $4,000,000 from the Performance Reserve Account in consideration of the Company undertaking to use best efforts to promptly enter into contractual documentation for the delivery of gold. The release of the funds was not based on achievement of the production-based performance hurdle.
In connection with the negotiated release, the Company has entered into a term sheet with Deutsche Bank whereby upon the Lamaque mine meeting or exceeding an annualized production rate (based upon the sum of production for a period of two consecutive months) of at least 50,000 ounces of gold (monthly production rate of 4,167 ounces of gold), the Company agrees to sell 500 ounces of gold per month for 36 months to Deutsche Bank. The price is determined as the lesser of the market price on the date of delivery and the price on the date Lamaque meets the production milestone plus US $200 per ounce.
Seems like lots of you are down on the Q3 Report. What did you expect? Commercial production?
We knew TPD (and Grades to a lesser extent) was not going to be stellar. The market certainly priced in <40k ounces at Lamaque. It's not like CMM lowered 2011 projected ounces. How is this so bad that it's not priced in already?
I'm just not sure about the 2011 ounces anymore since 2010 guidance has been revised 3x now.
2011 *should* be better but what if its not?
WC
This is what the market has officially been told about production since Q2.
August 13: July production 820 tpd and currently close to 1,000 tpd.
November 12: Currently 1,000 tpd.
Therefore the market should expect a number between 820 and 1,000 tpd for Q3.
Actual Q3: 570 tpd
June production was 1,870 oz.
Avg monthly production in Q3: 1,486 oz.
Now I know that Peter Ball was telling people who called him in October that the production had fallen to 400 - 600 tpd, but that is improper disclosure.
If we averaged 820 tpd for the first half of Q3, then we only averaged 300 tpd for the second half to get 570 tpd for the quarter. No wonder they stopped the monthly updates.
Now they are saying that we will do a minimum of 9,600 oz in Q4. We will need to average 1,000 tpd at a grade of 3.5 g/tonne in Q4.
Credibility has always been an issue with this company. They have a history of revising forecasts downwards and not making the lowered forecasts. How credible is the 2011 forecast? Not very based on history.
What is imperative now is to report monthly production ounces, complete with tpd and g/tonne starting with October. To make the lowered 2010 guidance, they should be somewhere close to 3,000 oz in October.
If they don't do this we won't know the Q4 numbers until April.
For 2011 they need to show how they are getting 80,000 oz by providing a forecast for every single month and then provide actuals at the end of every month. This is the only way to regain any credibility.
Carib, I agree with you 100%. Century is going to have to have an excellent Q4 just to meet the decreased guidance level of 18-20k ounces.
For the first 9 months of 2010, they managed to produce just 8,400 ounces out of Lamaque and are now saying they can produce a minimum of 18,000 for the year. That means they will have to produce 214% more gold in Q4 alone than they have in Q1, Q2 and Q3 combined just to meet the low end of their target. Doesn't seem probable to me with the information we just received from Q3 regarding head grade, tpd and the source of ore to the mill.
Likewise, the company has given the market no proof whatsoever that they can meet their maintained guidance of 80-90k ounces from Lamaque for 2011.
Constant failure to meet even downgraded guidance projections are not exactly confidence inspiring.
However, having said all that I am impressed at least with the company's honest explanation of their failures. This can be read on page 24 of the Q3 report.
Additionally, the drill results from Bedard as can be seen on slide 17 are fantastic, especially over 14g/t over 64m. I think Century should place priority on putting out a new NI 43-101 that includes Bedard resources, as so much of this company's immediate term future is riding on what happens with Bedard (namely if they don't continue development and increase tpd out of bedard they will miss another goal - the 1500 year end tpd target).
I also agree wholeheartedly that the company absolutely NEEDS to reinstate monthly production updates now that the worst of the worst is (hopefully) behind us. I don't think the market could take until the Annual in April to see what happened in Q4.
And the market certainly has not priced in a 100% drop in Lamaque guidance. We will feel a bit of pain tomorrow but it will all hopefully materialize as a long term gain.
Weary, you posted:
From 60,000 Lamaque projected ounces in 2010....to 40,000 Lamaque projected ounces in 2010....now down to 20,000 Lamaque projected ounces...
Not quite true. From Jan - May the forecast was 45,000 oz. In Sept it dropped to 25,000 to 30,000 oz and now it is 18,000 - 20,000.
It doesn't change the fact that guidance was lowered twice in the same year. And yes, there have been unforeseen issues, but there are always start-up issues. The 45,000 oz was never a reasonable forecast. I believe that 80,000 is a reasonable forecast for 2011, providing the grade can get close to 4.5 g/tonne.
No gold was produced out of Lamaque
in Q1. So making it to 18K in 2010 may not be that impossible.
Still like to see that A M guy out of there. He keeps moving the wrong rock pile!
Rhump:
Well, i see it as an opportunity, but i am not going to rush in. I already have a strategic entry planned with a friend and will see what changes in the company until then. My current goal, though not realistic to you, is to triple my current investment so i have a lot more to invest in CMM when the time comes. All under the condition that we see some more positive direction with the company and its management.
Carib: I think you make some good points that should be addressed at the shareholders meeting.
1) We have missed guidance twice .. what expectations do u have of making Q4 guidance ? 20% 80% ?
2) What is considered "timely notification" that we will or will not be hitting those numbers ?
Annual numbers are not due until April/ May
My take is most serious investors do not mind delays so much ... as long as they are made aware of what is happening.
Good 'ol CMM. Nice to see they haven't lost their stripes. Same over promise, under deliver nonsense.
That said, with that lunatic wench gone, CMM finally has a chance of gaining some respect in the market.
For the first time in 3+ years, I'm a buyer...
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