Chillby, as you probably already know, I agree 100% with your assessment. I agree we have turned the corner and are now in the most exciting phase of our development.
One thing I would like to see from here on out that I will talk to Peter about is a positive press release every 2 weeks or so from the company outlining the progress that is being made since we have officially passed the turning point. I've mentioned this before as have others but I feel this is critical at this point more than ever. Obviously, we need to execute first and foremost, but once we execute, we need to communicate our success.
For example, they should continuously make a list of positive developments that will take place over the next few months and break them down into pieces. They should then think carefully about how best to market these developments and make each a separate press release. While it is convenient to combine developments in a single release that covers many items, it dilutes their impact.
Century has to realize their current investor base is extremely light on institutions and heavy in retail investors and retail investors want to feel in touch with what is going on with the company and get very skittish when they don't hear anything for a long period of time.
Here are some examples of what i would like to see from a promotions standpoint in regards to the tone and type of regular releases.
"Century Mining reaches new monthly production milestone"
"Century Mining is pleased to announce Lamaque Mine now cash flow positive"
"New drill results in Bedard Dyke outline additional high grade veins"
"Century Mining increases gold reserves by XXX % in new 43-101 report"
"Century Mining announces average gold grade at Lamaque has increased from XX to XX month over month"
These are just meant to be examples off the top of my head. I did not include the obvious CEO announcement and i'm sure they could come up with dozens more.
This way instead of stuffing some good news and bad news that offset each other in a dense quarterly report, the retail investors will get a sense of the improvement and positive growth that is taking place as we quintruple production. They will feel in-touch and proud that their investment and company is moving forward. When they simply had the Lamaque countdown to production, such a simple tool in itself generated a lot of excitement.
I have seen a lot of successful companies in this stage use this strategy as they climbed 5 to 10 fold.
I also see a lot of companies valued much higher than they would be without this type of regular communication. In a recent interview, Rob McEwan discussed the critical aspect of regular updates and communications to his investor base.
If you agree, please send Peter Ball (Director of Communications) a note. (Or even just forward him this if you don't feel like writing.)
If they hear the same thing over and over from many, it will be more effective than if they hear it from just a few. His email is - pball@centurymining.com
Cheers,
RE
15 comments:
a couple of great posts,nice to see everybody stay positive as CMM will come out of this stronger. I bought at 4 cents and 1.5 cents and i am still buying at 37.5,its been a rollercoaster ride but Peter Ball has done a good job even with his hands tied, cheers
I totally agree Peter has done a good job with a difficult situation so far. With the delays fully disclosed, the turning point passed, and things looking up, I would like to see him transition to a more promotions-based approach like this.
one thing i notice with this board is that like agoracom its for pro cmm posters only, for once let them prove what they say only then will i believe management.
RE
I share your view with this regular and consistent communication via NR with the retail investors at large. I had learnt of the McEwen approach n there is something to learn from this seasoned gold mine player. Will write to Peter today
Cheers
Thanks WF. I notice we generally agree on what we feel would be an ideal marketing approach.
I also wanted to add - in partial response to Anonymous. From here on, I would ideally like Century to promote progress that is already made and in not debatable, not make promises they can not keep for the future.
I would also like them to give themselves more room or "padding" in their projections so they can under-promise and over-perform instead of the opposite.
Hopefully, this can be an adjustment in the post-Peggy era and the new CEO will embrace this thinking.
They know by now that unforeseeable circumstances slow down ideal case scenarios and they need to give ample padding to this reality.
For example, when they were simply at 20k oz per year with just Peru in early 2010, they did not need to project over 100k oz total for 2011 as 20k to 100k is already a huge jump and impressive enough.
If I were running the company, even if my best engineers were projecting a rosy case of 110-115k, I would set a public "street" target of 100k and a target range of 90-100k.
This way, if you hit 105k, the street loves you for beating targets. If you hit 95k because of whatever factors, you are still in-line with estimates.
When you don't pad your projections, and you simply fall short, you end up apologizing and the street hates companies that have to apologize.
The ramp up is huge already so they should not base their benchmark on flawless execution and are only shooting themselves in the foot when they do so.
The street would be perfectly happy for them to project a lower but still impressive number and just hit it or exceed the goal.
RE
So now that PK has "retired", does anyone know if she still has to report as an insider?
If not, at what point did she have to stop?
So much of the 'hard part' in mine development had been successfully done that I wish, from now on, management may devout a little more time on the 'soft part' in share holders communication/education via NR or other means. If I read Chillby's comments correctly, believe Mr KH has come to see the need too. Hope things pan out well
Yes, don't get me wrong. I obviously believe we will succeed. I would just love to see them fix some holes and then we can really be off to the races through ramp up and beyond into steady state production.
Have a great weekend all,
RE
Thanks RE for that excellent idea to email Peter.
I have sent my email to him today and hopefully the more of us that send our message - the more they will comprehend the importance of communication and positive NR's.
We are investors, maybe only 25% of their shares (75% management and Main Investors)but that doesn't give them the right to keep us in the dark as they build on their plan.
Joe
Thanks also RE, I sent Peter an email this morning also.
cheers,
andrew
Had sent my email to Peter Ball yesterday. In my mind, the missing part is we retail investors lack the channel to keep current with all of the events n mine developments/performances. Monthly report/regular NR or a Co news letter will satisfy the needs. Phychologically, invertors, be they large or small like to be treated to an inside perspective of how the Co is functioning and growing.Really hope Mr KH would make changes to this effect.
Real Economics ..
I think you make a good point stating that when you do forcasts you should be bunting rather than swinging for the fences.
The street will love you when you beat forcasts .. what is worse though .. is that if you miss forcasts, then the street begins to mistrust what you say .. and future predictions.
I do not mind not having the love so much .. The market may not love you .. but as long as the company is trusted they will do okay.
If the market mistrusts you .. that is a problem
I think Hully and group were stuck with "Peggy's" predictions .. and I think this is perhaps something she did not get.
Peggy was a hard nose negotiator .. but I dont think she got "people" .. "investor psychology" ..
Hully was stuck with the prediction .. and when he realized that cmm would not meet .. he had to make a choice.
1) tell the street immediately .. and suffer now ..(perhaps affecting the earlier financings) or ..
2) wait until Q3 ..
I am thinking perhaps this may have something to do with Peggy's departure .. overforcasting.
After Peg leaves .. and Q3 is close to being over .. you have not gotten into Bedard yet .. and you are way below forcast production. .. and burning through cash.
Job 1 is to get the mine up and running... "raise cash" if you are running low .. this is what is best for investors.
What they could have done was to have given an update as to delays .. and lowered targets earlier.
They did get the a Q3 numbers out early... and I think this is good.
Also they were very straitforward in the conference call ..
In the future .. they need to work on building investor confidence.
Just a thought in consideration of the title "What I would like to see from Century now". Joe suggests that retail may hold 25% of CMM shares. How much combined collective sway do the followers of this Blog have? Any ideas how we could anonymously (or not since ACB is irrelevant for this exercise) disclose our share holding and calculate an actual percentage? This could be a measure of our collective sway and therefore a measure of potential influence as long term holders.
You know, I rather like Doc's suggestion. As for the anonymous who thinks we're all pro-CMM...well of course we are. We're shareholders. If you read back int the posting history, though, you'll see that while we aren't short on optimism, neither have we missed the bus on what needs to be done with the company.
My own positive prognostication comes from watching the company management steadily make its way through the "to do" list of things that make a producing, profitable mine. My thought is that, when we really get to see what this low-profile equipment is capable of (I figure we'll see the full-tilt boogie about Feb/March), then we'll start to see a lot of other miners going out and buying the same thing. Sigma/Lamaque will do its best work when we have the tonnage going through at a 1500-1750 tpd rate average. When we do actually exceed 2000tpd, watch those dore bars pour! At our current TPD, we're still not getting the best ratio of ore produced/gold poured, for the grade we are pushing. I don't mind, though - I'd rather get to optimization slowly and NOT have the ball mill go down a month into production.
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