In my view, numbers wise, no reason for the share price to trade below $.52 per share, even without any additional financings

By the way, I fully expect all financings to close. In fact, I wouldn't discount us maybe getting some extra positive news.

However, let's work with worst case scenario for this analysis. Let's see what we are working with if we do not get another financing - strictly hypothetically speaking.


Century's remaining balance sheet obligations:

*Net AP and Accrued Liabilities - $5.6M (net of $8.3M AR and est. employee pymt of $350K made subsequent to quarter end)

*IQ Debt - $16.4M

*MRI Debenture - $1.0M (Century is trying to reduce this due to MRI's failure to fulfill its obligation)

*Tamerlane - $153K

*Current Other LT Debt (Equip. lease) - $340K

*Other LT Debt (Equip. lease) - $241K

*Future Income Tax Liabilities - $635K ($935K less $300K per Quebec newspapers, this amount appears to have been paid subsequent to quarter end, municipal taxes, etc.)


NET remaining Century Balance Sheet obligations (before adjusting for cash position) = $24.3M

I have excluded the $2.6M ($2.2M + $.4M) Gerald Metals obligation as they are already secured by the 2,015 unfinished ounces residing in Lamaque's inventory)

Naturally, I have also excluded the environment bond amount, as we already know about the Quebec payment subsequent to quarter end.

Cash sitution (let's assuming no more financings, not even the current $4M to be closed off soon):

*Current cash - $2.0M (likely, based on previous $4M financing and recent Cash Flow)

*New cash next 90 days - $2.0M (assuming Q3 production of 4,561 and US$486 cash cost, even after removing funds for Corp G&A, ongoing mine development, taxes, etc.)

Cash Position next 90 days = $4.0M


NET remaining Century Balance Sheet obligations (After adjusting for cash position):

$20.3M ($24.3M - $4.0M)


Century's share price based on Q3's Net Income:

Century posted a Net Income of $.012 per share in Q3 (equates to $.048 on an annualized basis), even using Century's current share count of 226,000,000. There is every reason to believe that this Net Income level is sustainable. The gold price has gone from a Q3 average of US$960 to US$1,200 currently. With a capital injection of US$1.5 to expand San Juan's milling capabilities, Century's quarterly production ounces can increase from the Q3 level of 4,561 to 6,500.

Using a conservative PE (Price to Earnings) ratio of 10, this equates to a Century share price of $.48 (this is even without Lamaque in production).


Let's assume we had to sell Lamaque (again, strictly hypothetically speaking, from a worst case scenario perspective):

By the way, I am aware of at least 2 solid companies that were interested in executing a merger with Century (prior to Century going with Finskiy and Scola) so there is definitely interest in Lamaque out there - Century confirmed via several documents and conference calls that other parties have showed interests in doing a deal with Century. One would think that those interests would be even more favourable to Century now that the gold price is US1,200 (with higher potential).

Let's further assume fire sale price scenarios.

Scenario 1, sale price = $30M for Lamaque

Scenario 2, sale price = $50M for Lamaque

Scenario 3, sale price = $70M for Lamaque

Scenario 4, sale price = $100M for Lamaque


Remaining cash after retirement of the $20.4M balance sheet obligation:

Scenario 1 = $9.7M or $.04 per share cash remaining

Scenario 2 = $29.7M or $.13 per share cash remaining

Scenario 3 = $49.7M or $.22 per share cash remaining

Scenario 4 = $79.7M or $.35 per share cash remaining


Share price (Q3 Net Income level + remaining Cash from transaction):

Scenario 1 = $.52 per share ($.48 + $.04)

Scenario 2 = $.61 per share ($.48 + $.13)

Scenario 3 = $.70 per share ($.48 + $.22)

Scenario 4 = $.83 per share ($.48 + $.35)

In my view, (numbers wise) I see no reason for Century trading as low as $.26 per share right now, with or without any future financings. The improvements in the Balance Sheet over the past year, coupled with the gold environment, has reduced the risks substantially, in my view.