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$3,000,000 Cash = 10,000,000 full warrants converted to shares @ $.30 (Aug. 6`10 transaction date, Aug. 10`10 filed date on SEDI), it now brings the total to $6,000,000 injected since July
P5,,, Is this cash injection via warrants necessary to sustain the progress being made at Lamaque, or could there be another valid reason for Finiskiy to put up additional funds. Ie. M&A or expansion at San Juan? TIA.
Finisky & Co increase their stake to 50%+ through warrants and open market purchases. Takeover the company for .40+ per share? Last i checked, Maxim or anybody else doesn't have to care about P5, Rhump, Chills, Carib, Wingfong, rock3030, etc, etc...
Just posing this question and how real is this threat?
What a deal for a company with blue sky potential...
rock3030, Your scenario should not worry you (& us other small shareholders), because Mr Finskiy & Co already control CMM. It would not be in their interest to squeeze us little guys out of the picture. We don't have to sell to them, should they make us an offer at 40 cents. The value of shares will ultimately reflect production and net revenue (profit) figures. And, of course, supply & demand for shares in the market. I suspect that Mr Finskiy & Co have in mind to grow CMM into significant mid-tier producer with its share price well on the plus side of $10 in thelong run. Just look at the share price of Osisko (where it came from & where it's at). And they will only start producing next year!
I think the cash injection via warrants is necessary. I think it replaces the C$9.0 million that they are unable to pull out of the escrow/performance account at this time.
The gross revenue from Lamaque gold sales should be sufficient at this time to fund operating costs. The Finskiy cash injection is necessary to fund development of the Bedard Dyke and the North Wall (in absence of the escrow cash).
I have firmly believed all along that the Finskiy warrants has always been targeted as contingency cash during development (in case the C$9.0 escrow cash was not available in time). I think they even hinted at this in the Management Information Circular (Oct. 29`09 on SEDAR, pg 7):
``If following the Closing, the Company requires additional working capital to fund the development and operation of the Project, the Investor will provide the Company with all or part of such additional working capital through the exercise of the Warrants or by way of private placement for such number of Common Shares at a price to be agreed between the parties in the context of the market at such time, up to a limit of Cdn$15,000,000.``
I think the timeframe to access the C$9.0 million was unachievable all along. They would have needed to do 1,000 - 1,100 tpd for 4 consecutive months at Lamaque starting in March - that would have meant overachieving with every single thing, and with absolutely not start up delays.
I think the escrow timeframe was just the best they were able to negotiate with Deuthsche Bank. They couldn`t negotiate any further as Y/E was approaching and they had to close the deal.
I think Finskiy and Century was fully aware that they had to execute the contingency plan (of cash injection from Finskiey via warrants).
I also think that they were able to get Deuthsche Bank to feel comfortable also. I think the inclusion of Finskiy and Scola was the key to making Deuthsche Bank comfortable about the start up and the funding situation. I think this is why we (as least I) don`t see a specific near-term (drop dead) start up date as part of the Deuthsche Bank prepaid gold sales agreement (just as long as Deuthsche Bank continues to receive their minimum monthly gold ounces from either Lamaque or San Juan or both). I think Deuthsche Bank felt comfortable enough that Finskiy and Scola had deep enough pockets or access/connections to large pools cash that their investment in Century Mining would have minimum risk.
What happened over the past 7 n half months. -all systems go, many mine fronts successfully developed -20 gold bars poured in 15 wks -TPD went from 115ton/march, 265ton/april,may 450ton/june, 820ton/july -reported by Victor 3 times (incl BNN, The Gold Report 2 times, Mineweb)with a suggested sp of +-$2 -Boyko posted his analysis boldly justifying a sp of $4 -Brian Mok of Union Secusities wrote in The Gold Report voicing a conservative sp of $0.90 -14 analysts went for a high profile mine tour -management change -open knowledge of all exploration potentials, R/R, mining properties etc (I asked and Prod05 posted to say that 10 million oz resources in Lamaque is not inconceivable) -up coming article by Marilyn Scales expected to be published in the Canadian Mining Journal come Sept/10 IMO, these are solid pointers suggesting serious developments and efforts applied wanting the world to know how valuable/beautiful CMM is. Hence if I were Mr Frinskiy ..cont -
...cont 1) I will be pleased my investment is working and I will give it all the motivation to fast track its progress. This must be the way to show the world I am successful n capable 2) I will show the Banks and the mining community of my commitment especially the bankers cos I will sure need them in the future 3) As I have plan to expand tro M&A, I must elevate the co to be respectable in all fronts including fair treatment to retail investors (after all they post no threat to me)otherwise how am I going to show the smaller mine properties owners I offer fair deals should they decide to join hands with me? 4) With the co's valuation already an open book case, if I offer to take over at $0.40/share, is it not a joke? the mining community must surely view me with contempt. Folks, I will surely ruin my standing in the Canadian mining community and perhaps building up another $25billion Polyus. 5) Come to think of it, is it really possible to take over at $0.40? wouldn't the sp runs when I break news? Any other potential spanners? I hope I am not being naive
I don't understand how OSK.TO can sport a $4.5Billion market cap. Sure they might be producing 600K oz by 2011, but CMM *is* producing gold right now. Even with 100K oz of production, CMM should have at least 400-500M market cap not 150M.
Wingfong & P05 make the best case for interpreting what is happening. My reasons early on for digging up what I could about the BOD, were to determine what the odds were of the company being gutted by its majors. That question overrode all other concerns in my secondary DD, simply because of the way the baggage looked form the past. People generally establish their reputations in business early on in their careers, and in this business, you'd better believe that there is a discernible trail. Checking things out was especially important in light of the insider scandal at ECO, as well as some questionable events at Apex. None of the mud stuck to Lamarque or Hulley, and it wasn't because they slithered out from under it - it didn't stick because they weren't guilty of any wrongdoing or Bs at all. That, combined with F&S' and Campoy's reputations, tilted the scaled hard over towards these guys having a legitimate intention to grow this company...lets face it-the thing we like best about CMM is what they have in the ground and where. We have the team, the gold, the infrastructure and the financial backing to make this happen, and that's what is going on. It won't be a six-month process, but I defy you to find anywhere else that has better blue sky than we do right now. Osisko is a great company - they have their market cap because they have the same things we do- gold, management and location. What they don't have is our baggage. IMO, that baggage has been left in the lost luggage department at this point. We're going to see some serious gold mining going on from here on out. My advice? Buy shares now while they are cheap-you won't get a return like this at your S&L>
I said before I had turned a "content watcher" from being a "price watcher" for newly discovered reasons and changed of perception.And in my quest, I have glenced from the knowledgeable and experienced, the use of the following criteria. They are more or less in order of importance to me:- 1) Co with quality assets 2) Location and location 3) Management quality 4) Ability to raise capital 5) Genuine promotion of co/stock 6) capital structure 7) Has it attracted the interest of any analyst(s) Applying these on CMM, I have found the highly important aspect of Management Quality most elusive and difficult to quantify totally because I am unable to see the men in action, hear them, talk to them, watch their body language and gain the knowledge on matters that can only be gained tro words of mouths and ground feel. So, Chillby, your research on the BOD is most valuable and has helped me to gain a better/deeper understanding on the gentlemen who are supposed to be there to bring up the co. Cheers! by the way, anything on Mr Scola?
If you go to bigcharts, ca:cmm click advanced charts and pull up a 5 yr chart. You will see that on the last strong uptrend the first wave up peaked at 43 cents .. pulled back to 30 .. then rocketed through what looked like solid overhead resistance at 50 cents (expected more of a pause here) the next level of serious overhead resistance was 80-90 cents (the midpoint of the trading range for much of 2007). Sure enough the share price topped at 85.
This time we break through the 85 cent level .. although we may have a pullback at this level finding support around 60 cents. From there I think the SP will make it above 1.00 but there looks to be resistance at the 1.10 - 1.20 level.
Calling exact prices is exceedingly difficult .. it is more of a probability game (there is a higher probability that stuff will happen at the resistance/support levels)
Also as time unfolds the chart patterns change predictions updated.
The main thing here .. is that cmm has retraced to the LTMA - 210 day. The next trendline formed I expect to be steeper than the last. It is not out of the question that a peak in this next up-trend exceed the previous high of 1.80.
14 comments:
P5,,, Is this cash injection via warrants necessary to sustain the progress being made at Lamaque, or could there be another valid reason for Finiskiy to put up additional funds. Ie. M&A or expansion at San Juan? TIA.
How real is this scenario:
Finisky & Co increase their stake to 50%+ through warrants and open market purchases. Takeover the company for .40+ per share? Last i checked, Maxim or anybody else doesn't have to care about P5, Rhump, Chills, Carib, Wingfong, rock3030, etc, etc...
Just posing this question and how real is this threat?
What a deal for a company with blue sky potential...
rock3030,
Your scenario should not worry you (& us other small shareholders), because Mr Finskiy & Co already control CMM. It would not be in their interest to squeeze us little guys out of the picture. We don't have to sell to them, should they make us an offer at 40 cents.
The value of shares will ultimately reflect production and net revenue (profit) figures. And, of course, supply & demand for shares in the market. I suspect that Mr Finskiy & Co have in mind to grow CMM into significant mid-tier producer with its share price well on the plus side of $10 in thelong run. Just look at the share price of Osisko (where it came from & where it's at). And they will only start producing next year!
Hi BigJohn37,
It personally doesn't feel like we'll be going down the road of a takeover but I just wanted to post the question and have some opinions...
I do believe we all just need to hang in there and continue to have patience that we've had for a few years now
Thanks to all for making this a great site to visit, it's been a refreshing change since inception, compared to SH
I think the cash injection via warrants is necessary. I think it replaces the C$9.0 million that they are unable to pull out of the escrow/performance account at this time.
The gross revenue from Lamaque gold sales should be sufficient at this time to fund operating costs. The Finskiy cash injection is necessary to fund development of the Bedard Dyke and the North Wall (in absence of the escrow cash).
I have firmly believed all along that the Finskiy warrants has always been targeted as contingency cash during development (in case the C$9.0 escrow cash was not available in time). I think they even hinted at this in the Management Information Circular (Oct. 29`09 on SEDAR, pg 7):
``If following the Closing, the Company requires additional working capital to fund the development and operation of
the Project, the Investor will provide the Company with all or part of such additional working capital through the exercise of the Warrants or by way of private placement for such number of Common Shares at a price to be agreed between the parties in the context of the market at such time, up to a limit of Cdn$15,000,000.``
I think the timeframe to access the C$9.0 million was unachievable all along. They would have needed to do 1,000 - 1,100 tpd for 4 consecutive months at Lamaque starting in March - that would have meant overachieving with every single thing, and with absolutely not start up delays.
I think the escrow timeframe was just the best they were able to negotiate with Deuthsche Bank. They couldn`t negotiate any further as Y/E was approaching and they had to close the deal.
I think Finskiy and Century was fully aware that they had to execute the contingency plan (of cash injection from Finskiey via warrants).
I also think that they were able to get Deuthsche Bank to feel comfortable also. I think the inclusion of Finskiy and Scola was the key to making Deuthsche Bank comfortable about the start up and the funding situation. I think this is why we (as least I) don`t see a specific near-term (drop dead) start up date as part of the Deuthsche Bank prepaid gold sales agreement (just as long as Deuthsche Bank continues to receive their minimum monthly gold ounces from either Lamaque or San Juan or both). I think Deuthsche Bank felt comfortable enough that Finskiy and Scola had deep enough pockets or access/connections to large pools cash that their investment in Century Mining would have minimum risk.
WOW! Production 05 - you're the smartest here! Your analyses always make so much sense. Blessings.
What happened over the past 7 n half months.
-all systems go, many mine fronts successfully developed
-20 gold bars poured in 15 wks
-TPD went from 115ton/march, 265ton/april,may 450ton/june, 820ton/july
-reported by Victor 3 times (incl BNN, The Gold Report 2 times, Mineweb)with a suggested sp of +-$2
-Boyko posted his analysis boldly justifying a sp of $4
-Brian Mok of Union Secusities wrote in The Gold Report voicing a conservative sp of $0.90
-14 analysts went for a high profile mine tour
-management change
-open knowledge of all exploration potentials, R/R, mining properties etc (I asked and Prod05 posted to say that 10 million oz resources in Lamaque is not inconceivable)
-up coming article by Marilyn Scales expected to be published in the Canadian Mining Journal come Sept/10
IMO, these are solid pointers suggesting serious developments and efforts applied wanting the world to know how valuable/beautiful CMM is.
Hence if I were Mr Frinskiy ..cont
-
...cont
1) I will be pleased my investment is working and I will give it all the motivation to fast track its progress. This must be the way to show the world I am successful n capable
2) I will show the Banks and the mining community of my commitment especially the bankers cos I will sure need them in the future
3) As I have plan to expand tro M&A, I must elevate the co to be respectable in all fronts including fair treatment to retail investors (after all they post no threat to me)otherwise how am I going to show the smaller mine properties owners I offer fair deals should they decide to join hands with me?
4) With the co's valuation already an open book case, if I offer to take over at $0.40/share, is it not a joke? the mining community must surely view me with contempt. Folks, I will surely ruin my standing in the Canadian mining community and perhaps building up another $25billion Polyus.
5) Come to think of it, is it really possible to take over at $0.40? wouldn't the sp runs when I break news? Any other potential spanners?
I hope I am not being naive
I don't understand how OSK.TO can sport a $4.5Billion market cap. Sure they might be producing 600K oz by 2011, but CMM *is* producing gold right now. Even with 100K oz of production, CMM should have at least 400-500M market cap not 150M.
Wingfong & P05 make the best case for interpreting what is happening. My reasons early on for digging up what I could about the BOD, were to determine what the odds were of the company being gutted by its majors. That question overrode all other concerns in my secondary DD, simply because of the way the baggage looked form the past. People generally establish their reputations in business early on in their careers, and in this business, you'd better believe that there is a discernible trail. Checking things out was especially important in light of the insider scandal at ECO, as well as some questionable events at Apex. None of the mud stuck to Lamarque or Hulley, and it wasn't because they slithered out from under it - it didn't stick because they weren't guilty of any wrongdoing or Bs at all. That, combined with F&S' and Campoy's reputations, tilted the scaled hard over towards these guys having a legitimate intention to grow this company...lets face it-the thing we like best about CMM is what they have in the ground and where. We have the team, the gold, the infrastructure and the financial backing to make this happen, and that's what is going on. It won't be a six-month process, but I defy you to find anywhere else that has better blue sky than we do right now.
Osisko is a great company - they have their market cap because they have the same things we do- gold, management and location. What they don't have is our baggage. IMO, that baggage has been left in the lost luggage department at this point. We're going to see some serious gold mining going on from here on out. My advice? Buy shares now while they are cheap-you won't get a return like this at your S&L>
touched the 210 day long term moving average yesturday (40-41 cents)
This represents a full retracement and completion of the second wave down.
Now .. the third wave up begins !
Mike
I said before I had turned a "content watcher" from being a "price watcher" for newly discovered reasons and changed of perception.And in my quest, I have glenced from the knowledgeable and experienced, the use of the following criteria. They are more or less in order of importance to me:-
1) Co with quality assets
2) Location and location
3) Management quality
4) Ability to raise capital
5) Genuine promotion of co/stock
6) capital structure
7) Has it attracted the interest
of any analyst(s)
Applying these on CMM, I have found the highly important aspect of Management Quality most elusive and difficult to quantify totally because I am unable to see the men in action, hear them, talk to them, watch their body language and gain the knowledge on matters that can only be gained tro words of mouths and ground feel.
So, Chillby, your research on the BOD is most valuable and has helped me to gain a better/deeper understanding on the gentlemen who are supposed to be there to bring up the co. Cheers! by the way, anything on Mr Scola?
Mike,
Where might the third wave take us in your opinion, theoretically?
If you go to bigcharts, ca:cmm
click advanced charts and pull up a 5 yr chart. You will see that on the last strong uptrend the first wave up peaked at 43 cents .. pulled back to 30 .. then rocketed through what looked like solid overhead resistance at 50 cents (expected more of a pause here) the next level of serious overhead resistance was 80-90 cents
(the midpoint of the trading range for much of 2007). Sure enough the share price topped at 85.
This time we break through the 85 cent level .. although we may have a pullback at this level finding support around 60 cents. From there I think the SP will make it above 1.00 but there looks to be resistance at the 1.10 - 1.20 level.
Calling exact prices is exceedingly difficult .. it is more of a probability game (there is a higher probability that stuff will happen at the resistance/support levels)
Also as time unfolds the chart patterns change predictions updated.
The main thing here .. is that cmm has retraced to the LTMA - 210 day. The next trendline formed I expect to be steeper than the last. It is not out of the question that a peak in this next up-trend exceed the previous high of 1.80.
Mike
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