JUNE ACTUAL:
*gross production ounces = 1,870
*net production ounces (after the 667 ounce deutsche bank prepaid delivery) = 1,203
*approximate Lamaque Gross Revenue in June = C$1,500,000
(@ US$1,200 price, 1.04 exch rate)
JULY POSSIBILITIES:
Known info, from the August Corp Presentation:
``2010 March ~115 TPD, April/May ~265 TPD, June ~450 TPD, July ~820 TPD``
``Mill recovery averaging approximately 95.97% to 96.5%``
``Initial startup head grade ranging 3.32 g/t Au to 4.37 g/t Au; expect life of mine to average 4.77 g/t Au``
Scenario 1 (3.32 g/t grade):
820 tpd = 2,521 gross ounces or 1,854 net ounces = C$2,300,000 Gross Revenue available entirely to Century, based on net ounces
Scenario 2 (3.70 g/t grade):
820 tpd = 2,809 gross ounces or 2,124 net ounces = C$2,660,000 Gross Revenue available entirely to Century, based on net ounces
Scenario 3 (4.00 g/t grade):
820 tpd = 3,037 gross ounces or 2,370 net ounces = C$2,945,000 Gross Revenue available entirely to Century, based on net ounces
Scenario 4 (4.37 g/t grade):
820 tpd = 3,318 gross ounces or 2,651 net ounces = C$3,300,000 Gross Revenue available entirely to Century, based on net ounces
Notes:
1) Other key assumptions: @ US$1,195 gold price, 96% recovery, 1.04 exch rate, 667 ounces paid to DB
2) This is only for Lamaque. The 1,700 monthly San Juan produced ounces and associated gross revenues have been excluded from the figures above.
3) Assumes 30 production days for the month.
4) The 820 tpd is mining tpd. This analysis assumes that all tonnes mined made it to the mill and was processed during the month. The reality is that there will be carryovers from month to month with regards to tonnes mined (not all July mined ore ended up in ounces produced in July). However, ounces could still be similar to those profiled above due to opening balance of mill circuit inventory and ore stockpile carryovers mined in previous month.
9 comments:
I'm actually pretty happy with the progress. Now it makes more sense why Finski keeps exercising warrants. And the fact our new VP of Geology bought 10k shares in the open market (although very little in $ term, still positive).
``Weekly gold pours April to Present –20 gold bars to date of various sizes``
last week of April to first week of August = 15 weeks
20/15 = 1.33 average weekly (gold bar) pour rate for the entire period
This would suggest that they are now pouring gold twice a week (if not consistently then perhaps frequently).
``BedardDyke portal opened with access driven into mineralized zone, drill station completed and ramp commenced``
Based on this comment and the overall grade for Lamaque still being under 4.37 g/t, it strongly suggests to me that they either haven`t started processing the 20,000 Bedard Dyke bulk sample tonnage as yet or they didn`t get insignificantly into it in July. The comment gives me the impression that they are getting close though. It appears to me that Lamaque no. 2 has likely continued to carry almost all of the load, coupled with mineralized development material from time to time from the Bedard Dyke development area as they move forward with development.
``Work on North Wall portal commenced July 2010``
This is significant news! Material work on North Wall development was not planned until Q4, with production in early January. If they make good progress with the North Wall in Q3 then perhaps we may see meaningful North Wall production in Q4.
I wonder what happened to the work they were doing in June with regards to drifting over to the North Wall. A portal is an entrance that starts on the outside (in the Sigma Open Pit). There shouldn`t need to be any drifting over required to begin development work on the North Wall portal.
Drifting over to the North Wall appears to have been a separate project. As mentioned before, it appears that they were drifting over to the North Wall from the Bedard Dyke portal. I wonder if they decided to no longer move forward with the drift over project or whether it is still moving forward. If it`s still a go then maybe we can eventually get 2 ore feeds from the North Wall (1. North Wall ore from the west end of the North Wall, via the BD portal, 2) North Wall ore via the North Wall portal).
There was no update on the North Wall drifting in the August report thus it is probably not something we should continue to expect.
Either way, hopefully they have a plan to get some short-term ore feed from the North Wall. The 20,000 Bedard Dyke bulk sample coupled with some ore from the North Wall would go a long way to driving up the 2010 numbers. For now, they are sticking with the 40,000 ounce Lamaque target for 2010. As my recent analysis revealed, to even hit 33,000 ounces for 2010 they will need to deliver at a much greater level that what they did in July. They either expect the numbers to skyrocket somewhat soon or they will need to reduce the target to something more manageable. It`s almost mid August (almost 4.5 months) they are running out of months very fast.
``Additional stopesand subsequent tonnage increase expected in Q3/Q4 2010 from advancing Lamaque#2, and commencement of mining (and bulk samples) from BedardDyke and North Wall zones``
``Tonnage increase expected``, ``commencement``, ``Q3/Q4 2010``, together, is likely a strong hint that the 20,000 Bedard Dyke bulk sample tonnage have not been reflected in the 820 tpd for July.
P05-
How much do you suppose the longhole stope will add in tonnage if, say, we receive the permit in October? Given the mill capacity, would that, added to the North Wall ore (upon receipt of permit), bring us up to 1700-1900 tpd?
Given that we nearly doubled throughput in July, what odds that we can do it again for August? It seems clear that we are seeing some results from the new equipment.
Hi Chillby,
We probably have to wait and see how things develop. There is not enough info available right now about the Bedard Dyke long-hole stoping transition for us to put the pieces together. However, they are definitely intending to begin Bedard Dyke mining this year.
``commencement of mining (and bulk samples) from Bedard Dyke``
The use of the word ``mining`` is relevant. It distinguishes the function of actual mining (under a mining permit) from the function of bulk sampling (under an exploration permit), even though ore from both functions will be processed through the mill circuit.
This advance work will help us (once we get the permit):
``Bedard Dyke portal opened with access driven into mineralized zone, drill station completed and ramp commenced``
Portal in place, drifts in place to access some of the mineralized areas, ramp/decline work being done......
All of that advance work will help up tremendously once we get the permit to move forward with long-hole. However, where the timing gets uncertain is when I begin thinking about how/if the crown pillar fits into Bedard Dyke start up plan in 2010. The company hasn`t published much details about this area. I`m pretty sure the crown pillar will be required before going under the highway. It`s just not clear to me if that will be later down the road or if it needs to be in 2010. Also, it`s not clear if the crown pillar has to be in place prior to long-hole stope mining on other parts of the Bedard Dyke or if we can initiate long-hole stope mining some parts without it.
In addition, if the crown pillar needs to be in place first, I don`t know how big of a job it is (I have no idea if it`s a 2 week job or a 2 month job, to ensure it`s done properly and gets fully secured).
With regards to how much ore we can get from long-hole stoping once we start, I think it can be substantial eventually. They will be dumping mineralized material down the vertical stopes (in a bulk manner) to eventually be carried away by trucks (after the material gets pulled to safer space by remote controlled machines/equipment).
Most parts of the long-hole stoping process gives the impression of bulkiness. Also, the BD grades are good and the BD thickness is decent for the Val d`Or area. This bodes well for us.
In addition, Agnico-Eagle`s very successful Goldex Mine is located on the other side of Val d`Or. They use a long-hole mining method also. They are currently mining Goldex somewhere like 4,000 - 6,000 ft down. Bedard Dyke will likely be mined only maybe 50 - 700 ft down for at least the next couple of years (I think). I also believe that the Bedard Dyke grade is more than double the grade at Goldex. One advantage Goldex has is huge tonnage (massive tonnage) - I don`t know how many tonnes they could do per vertical stope though.
Although, it probably gives a hint that we could get a lot of tonnage from our long-hole stopes also. Though, we shouldn`t expect huge numbers right away - as with everything, there will likely need to be a ramp up period, not just from a learning curve but from opening additional stopes.
Hi Prod05
Very impressed with the amount of quality info u had brought on over the past few days via several postings especially the current Lamaque progress reports & comments.
Though I do not fully comprehend all the technical details yet (given time I will), I can feel the many exciting works that are going on and progress made in the mining fronts.
Would like to know, in your opinion, was the July work in total, satisfactory or better than u had expected?
Hi Wingfong,
I am generally pleased with the overall start up thus far. July was positive also. It is a bit concerning that they are taking longer than they anticipated to begin pulling the bulk sample ore. There doesn`t appear to be any major issues though as they have now appear to have reached the zone (``access driven into mineralized zone``).
As a general thought, I don`t mind if the Bedard Dyke development takes a bit longer than anticipated, just as long as they spend the extra time to get it right. BD will be an important ore contributor for us in the future.
As an overall observation, I see them making progress on all fronts of the start up. In addition, I don`t see them taking any steps backward.
I like the strength Lamaque no. 2 has demonstrated, with carrying the load in the early start up stage.
I`m impressed with them initiating work on the North Wall portal ahead of schedule.
I`m very impressed with the 96% recovery rate.
I like the smoothness and consistency of the overall operation - 20 gold bars in 15 weeks says a lot about the continuity over the overall operation. To realize such an accomplishment all parts of the operation had to have worked smoothly for the entire start up period:
*mine planning
*recruiting
*permit co-ordinators
*safety, scouting, clean up, facilities maintenance and site preparation teams
*geologists
*engineers
*exploration plan and drill execution
*look ahead drillers
*blasting team
*jumbo drillers
*miners, including scoopers and truckers
*crusher experts
*other mill circuit experts and operators
Century appears to have a very impressive collection of employees within the Lamaque operation. The work is far from being done, but so far they have demonstrated that they are more than capable.
The average grade for July, being below 4.37 g/t, is what I would expect without the BD bulk sample ore. As such, the overall grade should get better once the higher grade BD bulk sample ore gets loaded in, coupled with more optimization from the low-profile equipment in Lamaque no. 2 (and also if the additional low-profiles arrive in Q3, as planned).
We should now be able to test some of our key BD exploration targets (``drill station completed``). I look forward to seeing what they find once some or all of these targets have been tested:
1) Bedard Dyke at depth.
2) Southwest extension of numerous mineralized flats going beyond the Bedard Dyke.
3) Potential of the Bedard Dyke mineralized zone connecting to the North Dippers.
4) Potential of a (historically mined at depth) high grade mineralized Shear structure extending upwards just north of the Bedard Dyke.
Hi Prod05
A huge thank you for your lucid explanation of all the complexities of the mine. Can visualise LAMAQUE 2, BEDARD DYKE, NORTH WALL, THE BULK SAMPLE PORTAL and other works/fronts are being worked on continuously in the right direction.
Through your explanation, the mining front is indeed moving forward strongly. It must be morale boosting to see all the gold bars being poured as much as it is a vital proof of successful execution of all works in the mine.
Surely, investors will be amply rewarded soon. Cheers!
Post a Comment