Fellow Sufferers,
I am postulating a share value for the company based on the following assumptions:
143,115,743 shares currently outstanding
Life of mine at 13 years
600.00/oz gross profit per ounce
1,321,287 oz P&P x 100% recovery (allowing for some added ounces moving forward)
1,300,366 oz M&I x 80% recovery
3,305,904 oz Inferred x 60% recovery
(all numbers from website, except gross profit, which is pure conjecture)
P&P: 1,321,287oz x $600/oz = 792,772,200.00 total gross profit/life of mine (LOM)
M&I: 1,040,292oz x $600/oz = 624,175,680.00 """
Inferred: 1,983,542oz x 600/oz = 1,190,125,440.00 """
Total Gross Profit = 2,607,073,320.00/13 years = 200,544,101.00/year (makes no allowances for current period, obviously)
Minimum share value, based on one year's gross profit (200,544,101/143,115,743) = 1.40/share
LOM share value: 2,607,073,320/143,115,743 shares = 18.21/share
Certainly a lot can happen in 13 years. We'll probably locate a lot more gold on our other holdings. This is why I like this company, and why I'm not interested in shenanigators.
Hope everyone had a good day today.
8 comments:
Call it research or just using others's works. Over the months serious efforts and many many hours had been applied boring tro countless essays, research materials, charts, videos, magazines, books and news paper reportings etc.
Aggregating all that I could muster including pieces by Richard Russel, Julian D.W. Phillip, Rob McEwen, John William, Rick Rule, Stewart Thompson,Doug Casey, John Embry, Eric Sprott, James West, Ian Gordon, Portor Strusberry, Stan Bhati and another 20 plus authors, I CAN'T HELP BUT TO FIND THE FOLLOWINGS THREADING TRO THEIR WRITINGS.
1) The USA's US$13.2trillions federal debt can't be repaid + unfunded trillions of national liabilities + states's nearing bankrupcies + seriously high unemployment etc etc (The Euro and European countries are no better) leading to the debasement of the US dollar
2) The US markets may seem to look calm presently--expect big upheavals to come in +-12 months. Do not see any alternative, the middle ground has long been lost since
3) The US currency will lose its world reserve currency status and it is inevitable the replacing world reserve currency will have a gold component among other requirements because governments will find there are not enough reasons to trust one another and they need a medium of exchange that is not faith based. ..cont
..cont
4) Hold one's assets in hard assets be it gold, silver, the companies that produce them, the oil companies--anything that is producing something tangible
5) World gold supply is falling and demand is fast increasing both from central banks , investment funds and private comsumptions
6) Gold price will rise and the range is US$1500-US$2000 in the next +-18 months
7) Gold and silver stocks are lagging the bullion hugely, reflecting the current (perplexing) negative sentiment in the whole sector. The juniors have much better value cos they are so far out of line with the price of gold and that it represents great opportunities. If(when) gold really moves up and sentiment changes, don't think it will take much money to drive some of these juniors nuts. There will be 5-10 baggers in the good ones. The mining sector has come to a game-changing cross road. ..cont
..cont
My decision to invest in the gold sector has something to do with the works of these gentlemen beside other considerations
Layering what I could glence from all the blog's postings on top of these works, I found compelling reasons to make CMM one of my core holdings
May be simplistic, perhaps naive, but then this is my version of the Occam's- Razor theorem as applied to the "to be or not to be"
question (investing in) on CMM. I still have outstanding buy orders should price touches lower levels.
Good morning Chillby.
Could you please educate me on the derivation of "143,115,743 currently shares outstanding"
Thanks,
Dennis, Fredericton, N.B.
Hi Chillby,
I like your "Chillbynalysis". What it shows is that we should hang on to our shares, and not join the dumpers. Actually, another way to look at the trading of the last several weeks is that some smart folks are buying (accumulating) CMM (since for every seller there is a buyer). And at some point (soon?) the supply of cheap shares will dry up. Then watch out,right?!
Wingfong's research/comments also suggest that we are in for quite a ride. GLTA.
Hi Bigjohn37
I hope all who follow the blog, especially the less informed new friends can come to the same conclusions as you had.
Carib once said, to him, the only things that matter are the price of gold and mine's production.
In essence, this is the ultimate truth in our endeavour. If we have the gold (assume at reasonable costs) and plenty of it and the price is good to excellent say somewhere between US$1500 to US$2000, how is it possible not to make money? and lots of it?
So for me, I am not too bothered how the market votes presently because I believe longer term Mr Market will have to weight CMM and he will certainly find her rather heavy.
Dennis,
That number is an estimate of the number of shares currently owned, of the 347 million-plus shares available for sale. If I recall, I got the number from the company's website-hence it is subject to correction. To calculate the s/p at full dilution, one might substitute the full # of shares available against the ounces and some assumed level of profit. To me, it's a bit like real estate - you can't value it based on future prospects, but you don't purchase it without some set of expectations for the future. I prefer to use as accurate a figure as I can obtain for how many shares are currently owned.
Insofar as our future is concerned, two things matter: how well we move forward developing our output at the mine, and who we end up hiring as CEO. Given our history, I would imagine that the latter has more to do with our near-term pricing than any other single factor.
I thought there were 400,000,000 shares outstanding?
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