Firstly, thanks for everything Carib and others have been doing to inform and consolidate our shareholder base - I am not the only one who puts my hands together!
I don't think anyone denies the assets that CMM has in the ground and the advancements they've made over the past couple years. I also think that most people see that the events over the last few months have been nothing short of blatant disregard for shareholder interests (through outright greed) - your newest Tab "Finiskiy's Planned Takeover" is a great synopsis for those who aren't aware, or for those who want a concise refresh.
Although we don't know very much about WTG - it certainly looks to be a shell company that has overblown value to scoop up companies on the cheap.
I think what most people worry about as we hold tightly to our shares is...what is the likelihood of the worst case scenario here? That is: We may end up holding a bag with a hole in the bottom and either no company at all or very little share value left.
I am sure that's what people that are considering a Yes vote are most worried about and see that a Yes vote means at least the "no company at all" option is off the table. Of course, they may have little share value left with WTG - this has yet to be seen.
I also think that people selling into this low share price are worried about the "no company at all" too.
Let's have some discussion to allay fears of the likelihood of "no company at all". I'm pretty sure people like Peggy Sue, who are understandably concerned about this likelihood, will realize that this is a fairly unlikely outcome.
17 comments:
Don't take this personally doc, as I know you mean well, but IMO it is statements like "We may end up holding a bag with a hole in the bottom and either no company at all or very little share value left". that fuels those fears.
IMO the worst case scenario is that shareholders succumb to unrealistic fears and accept the proposed deal. Post-merger we could end up with a $1.00 WTG share price and our CMM shares have been effectively reduced to 40 cents. I can't imagine the combined company having a market cap of less than $303 million by adding WTG assets including $20 million cash, CMM cash from exercise of 60+million warrants and options, 20k oz/yr Russian gold production and a TSX listing.
Century had a market of $310 million all by itself on March 6.
The best case scenario is that the merger gets rejected and we return to a $310 market cap on our own where our shares are worth 76 cents and not 40 cents. From there we get 100% of the upside not 61%.
No matter what happens, no one is going to take the company away from us. There will be no empty bag with a hole in it.
Can we not calculate on a risk/reward basis what we gain by jumping in again in the 50's. With a market recovery I think I could be persuaded to add another 50K ~ 12%.
So that at some point the number of NO votes becomes a roar in the ears of Major. He may resign!! After all he was VERY nervous at CC before we started to organize .
March is fraud prevention month in Canada.
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What percent of minority shares usually get voted in situations like this?
Anyone have any stats? Maybe 50 to 60%?
I'm encouraged by the 73M shares committed.
That's my question above about the share% usually voted. Payday
(sorry, I hit publish instead of preview)
Carib, thanks for the explanation on the share pricing. I agree that 0.40 would be the absolute bottom we'd be seeing (unless the price of gold drops through the floor...but that is a different issue all together).
Absolute worst case scenario, we end up with that lousy 20K mine in Russia and some reforumulated WTG shares.
Opening day of trading will be interesting. If one is nimble enough, it should be possible to get out in the $3s and buy back in the $1, thereby making up the loss from the dilution.
I would be very VERY interested to know if the reason the date of the special meeting was pushed into May is so that all those presently locked up hyperinflated WTG shares would be available for trading upon merge completion?
I like to know who is buying WTG stock? A company that has no website and no hard core information. Who are these people?
It is starting to appear and become ever more evident that Daniel Major's days are numbered. From Mr. Finskiy's position Daniel Major has exposed himself as incompetent when it comes to the business planning of CMM, getting Mr. Finskiy's business agenda implemented, not alienating other stakeholders, and portraying Mr. Finskiy in a light that I think even Mr. Finskiy is feeling uncomfortable with.
With reference to the 194 shareholders (some of which are multiple holders) who have already revealed their personal CMM positions (totaling 73,269,012 shares)and the 91% of survey voters who have rejected the merge offer......the BoD lead by Daniel Major's has no credibility, support nor confidence from this ever increasing group.
Pre meeting negotiations are going to take place.....that is a given. The performance of Daniel Major and the BoD are now one of the issues on the table. Considering all of the above..... Daniel Major and the BoD could become a sacrificial offering to the dissident group. It may be the only way that Mr. Finskiy can rehabilitate the trust and confidence that we had in him when he first came on the scene.
When I read Carib's chronology of events, (Thank you Carib...I do appreciate the amount of work and time that this required) I started to get the feeling that while Mr. Finskiy had final approval on what was recommended to him.... I also started to get the impression that his charges (ie DM and the BoD) were starting to manipulate Mr. Finskiy so that their agenda would be met.
194 shareholders and 91% of the survey votes are also making a recommendation to Mr. Finskiy.
My last thought, while DM and the Bod are preoccupied now with saving their own skins and staying in Mr. Finskiy good graces.... WHO'S MANAGING THE 2 MINES ????????
Payday."..the special meeting was pushed into May is so that all those presently locked up hyperinflated WTG shares would be available for trading upon merger completion"
I would imagine those investors with lock-up shares (presumable got them tro PP) could have cried faul to WTG management upon realising they could be at amximum risk on post merger trading day if their shares are tradeable only days or weeks after the merger completion day. Hence the push back to satisfy them.
One potential bad scenerio is this group just want out n dump their shares (presume sizeable) en masse
Hi Guys, I finally was able to post my 2 of 2 note to the earlier thread. Carib, your timeline is a good summary - thanks. A few questions I'm pondering:
(1) What does Century look like without this merger in terms of the capital needed to bring the mine to 100k oz production?
(2) Absent Max, which institutions invest in Century?
(3) If the merger is voted down, what's to stop Max from pounding out of Century and bringing our share price down to 20 cents?
(4) Why weren't we able to place $5m into Century in November/December at such attractive terms?
(5) Fair for All on the dissenting shareholder list controls 46.2m votes - so we see that the broad support of the dissenters is broad in number, but with huge concentration here. Can Fair for All be flipped if he/she believes a Yes vote will be better than a dissenting one?
My thinking here is that this dilution may be better than the alternative.
Peggy Sue is December3
I believe production05's recent blog entry explains why this merger may not be good for Century Mining Corp and it's shareholders.
peggy sue,
I beg to differ with all your suggestions. Since you started posting in here you have been basically one sided. I have always been a great listener and enjoy a good debate from time to time, however your constant negativity towards a no vote makes be believe that your intentions have already been declared. I don't know if you understand the term never underestimate your opponent. Do you? If fair for all is legit then we as shareholders will benefit. What your disregarding and maybe neglecting is the hand of poker that maybe on the sideline. I can tell you with great certainty a few big players with big chips are yet to jump in and show there hand. Dont ever underestimate your opponent once again. Your playing with some long time cmm investors who have plenty of skin and more! Just my suggestions.
Regards
glenfidish
Hi Peggy Sue. Please relax, if this lousy attempt at grand-theft is voted down (& I pray that it will be!), Century will be free to realize its potential, at last. One way to provide OUR company bridge financing is to give Century $0.10 in interest free loan for each share we own. That would raise over $7 million from the group represented on this Blog. If Max wants to loose bigtime, he may try to drive down the price of his own shares (as well as ours). That would be stupid. That's what the idiots at VEGA tried a few years ago (& nearly bankrupted CMM; I know, because I was a sharholder then, as was Carib). But times were really tenuous then.
We might even forgive Max for sorrounding himself with a bunch of brown-nosers, that will probably cost him his good reputation, what he was trying to build. Maybe he learned his lessons by now.
(1) What does Century look like without this merger in terms of the capital needed to bring the mine to 100k oz production?
San Juan cash flow +
Lamaque cash flow neutral or +
I believe Carib already explained this in another post about the difference between operational and free cash flow +.
If CMM needs more $, then I believe the sh have the right to enforce Mr Finsky to exercise those .39c warrants he (conveniently) dumped a week before giving CMM the bridge loan.
Other than that, there are rights offerings. I'm certain 75M votes would be interested in this proposal.
Finally, there is always forward gold sales (hedging). Would not take much to hedge (maybe 5-10%?)
(2) Absent Max, which institutions invest in Century?
Institutions usually are prohibited from buying stocks under $5.
I don't see institutions getting into this until CMM gets to be a commercial producer...another 12-18 mo. By then the sp should be in the $2-3 range.
(3) If the merger is voted down, what's to stop Max from pounding out of Century and bringing our share price down to 20 cents?
Mr Finsky has 160M shares at 20c invested in this company. Why would he pound the shareprice down to his entry point? If he does something that stupid, i'm buying.
You should take a look at what happened to the shareprice of High River Gold when they voted down the takeover at 18,22 and 30c...it went ...UP! Tripled in 6 months...despite all of the FEARMONGERING about HRG gonna get delisted, go back to 4c, go bankrupt.
It all sounds familiar no?
(4) Why weren't we able to place $5m into Century in November/December at such attractive terms?
I contacted Peter Ball to participate and he told me it was FULLY SUBSCRIBED. I still have the email. Maybe CMM needs to open these placements up to retail shareholders instead of their insiders club?
(5) Fair for All on the dissenting shareholder list controls 46.2m votes - so we see that the broad support of the dissenters is broad in number, but with huge concentration here. Can Fair for All be flipped if he/she believes a Yes vote will be better than a dissenting one?
If an offer comes in that would flip Fair for ALL then I think I would be sweet enough to draw in other people as well.
Have a look at the other poll. Most people want a fair price for their CMM shares...in other words CASH.
Just think if I offered to pay $1M for your house currently listed on the market for $500K....you'd accept right?...now what if those were $1M Russian Rubles instead? Still interested?
Peggy Sue,
I think we ought also to look at the flip-side of what's going to happen if this merger does go thru.
1. Your 1% automatically becomes 0.4%...of what? Who knows? Daniel Major cannot tell you. Perhaps as low as 0.4 of $0.90 (where CMM is trading right now).
2. As you pointed out, Max Finsky wants White Tiger to grow...into a MILLION OZ producer by 2016...less than 5 yrs.
After this merge the new company will only be producing 120,000 oz. For this they are TRIPLING the WTG float: 114M becomes 319M O/S.
How do you think Mr Finsky is going to be getting those extra 820M oz (it ain't going to be from those Russian "exploration" properties).
No, Mr Finsky/White Tiger is going to have to go shopping again....and you guessed it, do more share swaps and DILUTE your shares even more.
Now let's do some math:
Lets assume WTG has to increase its float 200M o/s for each extra 100K oz....(just like its doing now with CMM).... now we're looking at over 1.9 BILLION shares
After that comes a 10:1 Reverse Split... now you own how much? Not 1%, not 0.4%...maybe 0.004%
Sounds like a good deal now?
Payday
Bravo! Bravo! Bravo!
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