Saturday, April 9, 2011

In my opinion, if the company is taken over, and I don't doubt that it will, because "The

Saviour" has manipulated the share price to date in order to buy up a-la-cheap,

transferred shares and warrants to friendly hands and created a false sense of

distress for CMM in order to make this takeover palpable.


I see two scenarios unfolding here:


Scenario 1) In the event that he wins the day, there will be a significant number of

shares dissenting (my take is 50 million shares out of 80 million), a judgement value

for CMM may be set based on an asset value only ie. actual proved gold resources in

the ground+MInes+Mills:


As taken from goldminorpulse.com


Projected fair market valuation as a gold producer: US$341.36 per ounce of Au Eq.


Century Mining Corporation in situ metal value is 100% from gold. Therefore Century Mining Corporation should be valued on the Gold Producer Valuation Line or even at a small premium. Projected fair market stock price for Century Mining Corporation is derived using the projected fair market valuation at start of production of US$341.36 per ounce of Au Eq.


I will use only the proven, probable, measured & indicated gold reserves (leaving out the inferred estimates as an asset at Lamaque and San Juan) + mines and mills value,


Taken from CMM's website

Lamaque: Proven, Probable, measured & indicated = 2,420,876 ounces

San Juan: Proven, Probable, measured & indicated = 202,791 ounces


Total gold: Lamaque + San Juan is 2,623,667 ounces, based on the above value of US$341.36 per ounce.


2,623,667 oz x $341.36 = $895,614,967


Lamaque Mine+Mill is "Original cost of mine+expenses to return mill to operational status minus depreciation" = Approx. $75 million

San Juan Mine+Mill is "Original cost of mine+mill minus depreciation" = Approx. $10 million


Total value of CMM including only Lamaque assets+San Juan assets

and not including all other potential properties in Peru, Quebec, Alaska

& north west territories.


$895,614,967 + $75,000,000 + $10,000,000 = Approx.


$980,000,000./, approx. 427,000,000/outstanding shares = $2.29/sh.


Note: the remaining un-exercised warrants will not be exercised by Finskiy et-al until after the merger, in order to keep them away from the eyes of the OSC/BCSC, so they will not be included in this calculation.

If 50 million shares out of 80 million at present, dissent, the cost to to the saviors from Russia would be approx. 50,000,000/sh. x $2.29 = $114,500,000 at a minimum.


Now maybe you can see why we do not have to vote NYET to this deal in order to win, we just have to abstain from voting and dissent in order to kill this the deal, if they decide to continue anyway it, will cost them big time, so the dissenters will win really big and the yes camp will be stuck with WTG shares which will drop like a rock after the merger.


Scenario 2) The whole merger will be aborted, end of subject.


I know my numbers are all hypothetical, only a few are based on true data from true sites, but as you can see this whole sordid mess, and it is a dogs breakfast, will be an another expensive endeavor for Mr. Finskiy and associates.


So Ladies & Gentlemen please choose your poison and may the winners have the last laugh.


NSX001

5 comments:

maria said...

I will be waiting he committee's decision but I'm curious to know the latest date to file a notice of dissent. I was told that we're required to possess the shareholder's certificate and, at this time, I don't have one and I think it takes a long time to get it.

Any insight would be appreciated.

bigjohn37 said...

If I interpret your two scenarios, NSX100, we'll win with both options. Is that right?
I still prefer the second scenario. Soon after the Special Meeting, we'll have to have the Annual/Special Meeting, where we'll be able send Finskiy & Co packing, ellect a new BoD, and appoint a new CEO (who serves our interests, instead of Finskiy's). Let the earnings & growth to a significant mid-tier producer begin. It's nice to dream sometimes...

NSX001 said...

Good morning bigjohn37!

I personally believe that if we can dissent our shares, WTG will have to either back off, due to the large numbers of shares that they must pay cask for, or remove the 5% limit on their offer and follow through with their revised offer anyway, then try to find some way of dealing with us without giving away the store.

I don't believe he, Finskiy needs 50.1% control, I think they will get enough lackies to help them vote for what ever they want, plus don't forget, they will be in the British Virgin Islands, where anything goes, ie. no board meetings, no quarterly reporting, no regulatory oversight, no answering to shareholder queries and finally no media snooping around.

Sounds like heaven for crooks don' it.

nt300 said...

I found this off the Stockhouse website.

-------
It is my understanding that from a legal standpoint - MAX & company is under
no obligation to abide by any dissenting shareholder percentage.
-------

Any comments...

maria said...

nt300, I apologize if we aren't talking about the same thing.
I've read they have the option to drop the merger proposal if five or more percent of shares dissent.