Friday, April 30, 2010

Today's Trading Summary

The usual suspects maintain their roles as the largest sellers.  The 2010 Trading summary (link on right) has been updated for April and 2010 and Canaccord and Anonymous continue to be the biggest net sellers.

Tax selling thoughts I posted on Stockhouse

http://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/MessageDetail.aspx?p=0&m=28195232&l=0&r=0&s=CMM&t=LIST

Thursday, April 29, 2010

Today's Trading Summary

(Click to enlarge)

The McNutt barometer

``The options were exercised and either sold in a private transaction to minimize impact in the market, or continue to be held``

As mentioned yesterday, not everyone in the group sold their shares after exercising their options. It looks like at least one person held unto their exercised shares (at least for now). Who that person is could provide a hint on how senior management truly feels about the direction of Lamaque.

We know that Peggy sold her 200K exercised shares at $.63 on April 19th. As also mentioned, that sale had zero impact on her (and Ross`) 22.8M Century share position.

We`ll have to monitor SEDI over the next few days to see if McNutt sold his exercised shares also. He exercised the options on April 18th. I don`t know how much time they are given before they have to file their insider transactions, but I vaguely remember something like 10 days (I`m really not sure though). Peggy exercised her options on the 18th, sold privately on the 19th and filed on SEDI on the 28th.

If McNutt soon sells his newly exercised Century shares then it`s no big deal. It wouldn`t mean anything. He only had 75,000 Century shares prior to this recent exercise (although he still has about 700,000 options remaining). On the other hand, if McNutt suddenly starts accumulating shares (even through exercise of options) then this is likely a significant development. To be honest, even though McNutt is a senior manager at Century, he is the last person on earth I ever figured would accumulate Century shares. I say this simply because I have never seen anything like it from him since I`ve been an investor at Century (even though he is a VP Ops guy). You know, everyone has their own personal reasons not to purchase company shares - it could simply be that he doesn`t (didn`t) believe in making market investments. It`s really none of my business.

However, we should monitor if he keeps these 200,000 shares or if he sells them in the near-future. His exercise price was $.40. It means that he dished out $80,000 out of his own pocket. That`s a lot of personal cash to suddenly dish out for someone with (75,000) virtually no Century shares since the inception of the company (about 7 years ago).

McNutt is the VP Ops at San Juan, but he is probably helping out at Lamaque right now also while they search for a permanent Lamaque VP Ops. Either way, he should be in the know as a member of the senior management team.

I will post if I see him sell over the next couple of days.

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Today's Trading Summary

Both Canaccord and Anonymous hammered the share price to drop it and keep it below 80 cents late in the day.  First Canaccord sold 98,000 at the 80 cent bid and Anonymous took out the last of the 80 cent shares which seemed to trigger some 80-cent stop losses.  That was followed by a 70k dump by Canaccord at 78 cents while Anonymous put 115k on the ask at 79 cents.  After these shares were bought up, Anonymous sold 162k at the bid dropping the price to 77 cents. 

San Juan exploration start up period

San Juan exploration start up was expected in Q4 this year. I wonder if the early gold pour at Lamaque has moved up the start period by a month or two. It would be good if they could start mid to late summer instead of Q4 - worst case scenario, Q4 is only about 5 or 6 months away. There are lots of intriguing test targets on the property. Century`s land package is large down there, but the property had essentially never been drilled prior to Century arriving on the scene. Century`s original drill program down there was very limited and didn`t go much outside the veins surrounding the San Juan Mine area. Also, I think the geologists have since had a chance to study the data and have built theories based on similar geological formations and structures in Peru and elsewhere around the world. I look forward to us testing those theories.

``Upon commencement of gold production at the Lamaque gold mine, senior management will focus its energy on expanding production at Lamaque. At its San Juan gold mine, the Company will be ramping up exploration efforts on specific targets to evaluate the large property position.``
From the NR, we are averaging 1000 tons per day. Assuming grade is steady at 4.6 g/t and recovery comes in at 96% and gold at $1165, we should generate 139 ounces per day or 4170 ounces per month. At a cash cost of $480 per ounce, we should be getting 4.9M in revenue at a cost of 2M for cashflow of 2.9M per month. We should only increase this number as our through put increases, up to 2000 t/d by the end of the year. Barring a colapse in the price of gold (I expect gold to continue it's uptrend) this will become a very nice long term hold.

Thoughts on today`s NR

1) ``is pleased to announce that the mill facility at its 100% owned Lamaque gold project located in Val-d'Or, Québec, Canada is fully operational``

I don`t get the impression that the market entirely appreciates the significance of that statement. In my view, this is a major hurdle/accomplishment. Even from a distance, I have observed countless number of start up mine operations experience either hard to locate (and correct) vibration problems or serious recovery issues or other processing problems. The companies that owned those particular start up operations either got severely crippled or were partly eaten by sharks.


2) ``is currently processing 900 to 1,100 tonnes per day of ore from current production and existing stockpiles``

A 900 - 1,100 tpd run rate represents production run rate of 47,000 to 57,000 ounces for Lamaque (assuming they hit the targeted 95% recovery rate and 4.76 g/t grade). I can only assume they did not go full out with 1,200 tpd because they want to ensure they can maintain that pace until Bedard Dyke ore mining comes online (and is ramped up to a reasonable level), otherwise I guess if they push the 1,200 tpd too early then they might use up too much of the stockpile and not be able to maintain these levels until BD arrives.


3) ``The executive team is extremely pleased with results to date at Lamaque, and we can now focus on reaching further milestones as we progress through 2010.``

This likely means that Finskiy and Scola are extremely pleased also. If the people with the most money invested (and with inside info) are please then that is likely a positive development for us small shareholders.


4) ``The Company currently has a workforce of 180 on site, including staff, union employees and general contractors. This workforce is focused on mine expansion, mill facility upgrades, site reclamation and monitoring and general site maintenance.``

The company had 115 employees at Lamaque at the beginning of April. They now have 180, once they include general contractors. I don`t think the difference of 65 is all contractors. My guess is they have made some good strides in April in hiring a good number of employee miners in anticipation of mining the Bedard Dyke.

Also, from the last couple of NRs, I get the impression that they seem to be partnering well with the Quebec government. Not only has the government purchased the 1M tonne waste rock from Century (for road building purposes) but Century seems to going strong (with them) in reclamation of the unused parts of the property and just making the pit area look more pleasing to drivings on the hwy.


5) ``The development crew underground continues to mine in three separate stoping complexes.``

This is positive, as they were about to get into the 3rd stoping area (in the last update). Still going strong with 3 stopes, it likely means the original stope (at the beginning of March) is still a strong ore provider.


6) ``The low profile underground mining equipment to be used to increase efficiencies and production in the Lamaque #2 zone is expected to arrive at the minesite within days and on schedule.``

Yes, on schedule, but would have nicer to get earlier in April though. It`s understanable as I think most of it is coming all the way from South Africa. Plus, we are still very fortunate to have our order filled so quickly after financing got closed off (especially with the mining business booming again).


7) ``The Company continues with its final mine planning for the Bedard Dyke and expects to collar the portal in the very near future.``

I don`t mind if the BD mine plan takes a bit longer to fine tune or implement. This is going to be an important mining area for the company in the future. Also, later on down the road they will need to put in the crown pillar to mine under the hwy and such, and to also initiative long-hole stope mining (which will be a big step for us, both efficiency wise and increased tonnage).


8) ``The Company is also now preparing to commence a 150,000 foot (45,000+ meter) exploration and definition drill program in May 2010 at Lamaque, and is expected to continue over a three-year period.``

I wouldn`t be surprised if the last 3 drill holes for BD gets released with launch of this new exploration program.


9) ``At its San Juan gold mine, the Company will be ramping up exploration efforts on specific targets to evaluate the large property position.``

It should be exciting to find out which targets they select at San Juan. You can see my post from a few weeks ago regards to tires they might want to briefly kick down in Peru.


10) ``Upon commencement of gold production at the Lamaque gold mine, senior management will focus its energy on expanding production at Lamaque.``

Our Lamaque mill is officially capable of processing 3,000 tpd of high grade our. At 95% recovery and 4.78 g/t grade, that`s 157,000 ounces of annual production. No point wasting such capabilities with a $1,165 gold price available. If they have success with the new drill program (in moving more near-surface ounces into P&P) then I hope management will be able to implement a new mine plan to scale up from 105,000 ounces of production to 150,000 ounces within the next couple of years (prior to the shafts being ready). If so, we could become a mid-tier gold producer just from organic growth alone, with 180,000 ounces of production (150K Lamaque and 30K San Juan).


11) `On the exploration and geology front, the Company controls significant property positions in Canada, Peru and the United States that have been barely explored, and provide additional excellent discovery upside for the Company as we look to appoint a new VP Geology in the near future,`

Once Lamaque is more established, I would like to see us get going with our Northbelt (Yellowknife), NWT property, either with a JV partner running with it or us driving it alone (100%). I`m ok either way, despite Peggy`s reputation in that part of the wooks. There are no gold mines in the area anymore. The economic crisis has beaten down places like. Creating jobs (without sacrificing the environment of course) should be a top priority in northern Canada. The Federal government earlier in the year allocated funding ($12M I think) towards beefing up northern administrative departments in Canada to allow for projects to processed faster, especially in the mining industry. They want to make northern Canada more business friendly, while still not harming the environment.

I think a JV situation works best for us, but I don`t mine Century moving the property forward by itself with Finskiy and Scola being the investor face and significant shareholders in the company.

Everything I have seen about Northbelt makes me believe that we have significant potential for a mine on this property (this could be our 4th organic mine - see Carolin below for the 3rd mine). The property has a 15 kilometre strike length, in a 10M (+) ounce production (proven) volcanic belt. There are already 2 established non-43101 deposits already delineated on the property. One of the mineralized structures has 135,000 ounces (4.0 g/t grade) at relatively shallow depths. What`s really exciting about it is that it is both open along strike (open in all directions) and at depth. The second deposit has about 45,000 ounces (about 10 g/t grade) and is likely open also. There are numerous gold showings along the property also. There is also a large zinc showing, but that`s secondary as it is not our focus right now. At the very least, I would like to see either us or a JV partner get up there and start punching holes at least in the 135,000 ounce structure (if not both deposits) where we know for sure it is open in all direction. Hundreds of exploration companies waste millions of dollars trying unsuccessfully to find ore bodies. We have already found at least a couple of ore bodies on this property (potentially a lot more). No point wasting it with $1,165 gold.

If we are not going to consolidate the small producers in the Val d`Or area for a while then I would like us to bring Carolin / Module back in-house (via takeover). We still own most of the Carolin Mine. Module has done a good job under the circumstances - they have struggled mightily with raising funds. Carolin will never be a spectacular mining operation but it could still be very fruitful. I really like the exploration results shown by Module. I think the property has 700,000 - 1,000,000 ounce potential. With advancement of exploration, I think it can be a 50,000 - 60,000 ounce operation that can be fast tracked into production. This can be Century`s 3rd organic mine. However, a lot of exploration work needs to done and I don`t think Module is in a position to move aggressively (like Century will be). I think it`s almost zero risk for Century to bring in-house. Century can still keep the Module geologist to be dedicated with running with the project. Module has a market cap of only about $1.6M. Century can probably bring them in-house for far less than $5M. Best I can understand, the Deutsche Bank agreement allows for acquisitions of $5M (or less) at anytime. Module shareholders get to share in the upside to all of Century, while Century can ensure that Carolin moves aggressively forward, and hopefully becomes our 3rd organic mine. Carolin already has a lot of infrastructure in place (as a past producer). As a result, it should be less costly to develop than a brand new mining operation. Of course, it`s totally impossible to know right now, but my guess would be in the $20M - $40M range (excluding exploration costs). It`s the type of small organic growth that Century should be able to handle through cash flow over time.


12) No mention in the NR about starting to review strategic opportunities. You almost get the feeling that the other small producers are not quite ready to pool their assets together with Century to form a powerful $2 - 3 billion gold mining player. I`m ok with that also. I am also ok if they want to team up with another company. As I`ve identified above, Century has plenty of organic opportunities to work with. I don`t have a problem with Century just sitting back and growing it`s cash position - maybe do a one time dividend payout to shareholders (as a reward to all of the long suffering Century shareholders).

If the small Val d`Or area producers (and their shareholders) don`t want to cut a deal with Century, and don`t want Peggy, Finskiy and Scola to use their connections to arrange debt financing deals for them then I`m ok with that. However, I`m looking at their numbers and it makes me wonder how they are going to move forward without taking a hit. It also gives me the impression that Peggy and Finskiy are just going to sit back for a while and let them feel the pain until them come to their senses.

Best I can tell, Alexis Minerals (AMC) had a $4.2M debt due today and $2.1M due in July. They also have $13.7M in current payables. They need to raise $33.7M to develope the Snow Lake Mine. It`s not clear how much more they need to move their Lac Pelletier operation forward (they are in feasibility phase) but I remember seeing an old number of $8M. They also need to perform vital exploration on at least a couple of their key development properties. I think they still have a bit of cash, but I guess is that it`s very little relative to cash needs. They currently have almost 220M shares outstadning. At a $.30 share price, if they were to cover all these cash needs via PP then that works out to 205M more shares with say 103M full warrants (assuming half warrants per share given).

Northern Star Mining (NSM) has a $42M debt amount ($31M * 1.375 redemption rate - best I can tell) coming due mid next year.

It`s hard to believe that Richmont Mines (RIC) would want to truck their ore 110 km and 100 km for processing when their are more economical solutions available, but who knows, maybe they do.

Century's Lamaque Mill Facility Fully Operational & Provides Further Progress Update for Lamaque Gold Project

Apr 28, 2010 09:15 ET

BLAINE, WASHINGTON--(Marketwire - April 28, 2010) - Century Mining Corporation ("Century" or the "Company") (TSX VENTURE:CMM) is pleased to announce that the mill facility at its 100% owned Lamaque gold project located in Val-d'Or, Québec, Canada is fully operational and is currently processing 900 to 1,100 tonnes per day of ore from current production and existing stockpiles. The Company is fully financed and on budget for the ramping up of the Company's Lamaque gold project, and is preparing for its first gold pour within the next week, nearly one month ahead of schedule.

"Century is about to take a new step forward with imminent gold production at the Lamaque gold mine. We are making ready on all fronts for this exciting point in the re-opening of our second gold mine, on budget and ahead of schedule. Our metallurgical team is preparing the facility for the first gold pour and I look forward to seeing the yellow metal 'Pour in Val-d'Or'. Century Mining is fully cashed up and looking to build the next mid-tier gold producer. The executive team is extremely pleased with results to date at Lamaque, and we can now focus on reaching further milestones as we progress through 2010. On the exploration and geology front, the Company controls significant property positions in Canada, Peru and the United States that have been barely explored, and provide additional excellent discovery upside for the Company as we look to appoint a new VP Geology in the near future," commented Margaret M. Kent, President & CEO of Century Mining Corporation.

Lamaque Gold Mine Update

The Company continues to have excellent progress at the Lamaque mine site and expects to pour gold within a week. The Company currently has a workforce of 180 on site, including staff, union employees and general contractors. This workforce is focused on mine expansion, mill facility upgrades, site reclamation and monitoring and general site maintenance.

The development crew underground continues to mine in three separate stoping complexes. Ore that had been brought to the surface and stockpiled is being processed, now that the 3,000 tonne per day capacity mill is fully operational. The low profile underground mining equipment to be used to increase efficiencies and production in the Lamaque #2 zone is expected to arrive at the minesite within days and on schedule. The Company continues with its final mine planning for the Bedard Dyke and expects to collar the portal in the very near future. The Bedard Dyke is the second zone in the mine plan to be developed through long-hole open-stoping, which will subsequently increase the daily tonnage. All underground access portals are collared via the historical Sigma pit, which is located only a few hundred meters from the 3,000+ tonne per day milling facility.

The Company is also now preparing to commence a 150,000 foot (45,000+ meter) exploration and definition drill program in May 2010 at Lamaque, and is expected to continue over a three-year period. Upon commencement of gold production at the Lamaque gold mine, senior management will focus its energy on expanding production at Lamaque. At its San Juan gold mine, the Company will be ramping up exploration efforts on specific targets to evaluate the large property position.

Other

A group of senior management employees and former officers of the Company recently exercised approximately 600,000 options that were held since being granted five years ago on April 18, 2005 at $0.40 per unit. The options were exercised and either sold in a private transaction to minimize impact in the market, or continue to be held. Additional information on insider transactions can we viewed at www.sedi.ca.

About Century Mining Corporation

Century Mining Corporation is a Canadian junior gold producer and holds strategic land positions in Canada, United States and Peru. The Company's strategy is to grow to an intermediate gold producer through existing mine expansions and acquisitions of other strategic and synergistic gold opportunities.

On behalf of Century Mining Corporation,

Margaret M. Kent, President & CEO

Tuesday, April 27, 2010